Knowing that this blog is where people come to for their up to date information on collective bargaining and the National Basketball Association and, specifically, the Raptors...
Of the facts reported on the new CBA, it appears to be great news for the Raptors:
1) The best players, worth the Maximum contracts allowed, get a small pay bump from 30% to 35% of the team's salary cap.
This will really only impact Kyle Lowry, as he's likely to get the max or just under at some point in the Winter or summer. I can't imagine him leaving the Raptors, his family is reported to be really well settled, he loves his teammates, and he's not likely to join the Cavs, Warriors, Clippers or Spurs...so...so far so good. DeRozan and Lowry are the only two max level players the Raptors are likely to have for the next three seasons.
1b) It became a more difficult choice for players like Durant to leave their original team and join a super team. This makes the formation of another Eastern Conference super team unlikely (sorry Boston).
Their original team, assuming the player is an actual star, can re-sign the player for more money and more years earlier in the contract.
2) The minimum contracts for rookie players are going up. As is the minimum contract for veterans. This is going to make it difficult for teams trying to catch the Raptors to get better.
This is great news in the sense that the Raptors contract situation is more or less set for the next two or three seasons. Teams who are looking to acquire players are going to be really squeezed out by the new CBA: Their first year players are going to be eating up a higher percentage of the salary cap, as will their star player(s) leaving less middle ground for veteran acquisitions. Free agent signing are going to become even more rare. Once again: it's kind of addition by subtraction for the Raptors: They don't have any glaring needs or big acquisitions to make. Teams looking to catch them do, and it just got harder to do that.
2b) One consequence of this will be any player signed between summer 2014 and summer 2016 is likely to have a very valuable contract. Players like Ross, Patterson, Valunciunas, Carroll, and Joseph are going to be incredibly valuable to the Raptors as they'll be getting paid way under market value. This also makes a combination of them plus draft picks a really attractive package for a team who may be looking to trade a star player. Personally: I hope the Raptors don't make a super aggressive move, not much point in getting a Cousins/George or even Milsap if they're going to leave within a year of trading for them and the Raps give up incredible value.
3) The Raptors have drafted really well recently:
Poetl, Nogeura, Powell, Siakam and Delon Wright all look to have NBA player potential, none look to be busts. They're going to get more playing time, more money, and complement the star players well.
The new CBA increases the maximum roster size by two slots, and creates two-way contracts with minor league teams for two players on each roster. All the signs from the Raptors 905 (the minor league team), are that they're incredibly well coached and a great incubator of talent.
4) So, if you believe that the Raptors team is good enough that they're one Cavalier injury away from winning the Eastern Conference playoffs...then it looks like they're going to be in this position for a few years.
So, three more years or so of: Lowry/Joseph/Wright, DeRozan/Ross, Carrol/Powell, Patteron/Sullinger/Siakam, Valuncianas/Bebe/Poetl? While other teams will have a hard time improving quickly? Yes please.
We're Doomed: Everybody count to 3
Here's a story that isn't getting much attention (I think):
In 2011, the Republicans held a primary election to select their opponent to run against Barack Obama. There were 14 candidates, this is the story of one of the losing candidates.
Rick Perry became the Governor of Texas in 2000, following the election of George W. Bush to the Presidency. He left a complex legacy: taking credit for economic growth that exactly mirrored the boom and bust of oil prices, becoming a/the US leader in wind energy, guiding the state to have the highest percentage of uninsured citizens (meaning many people who couldn't afford health care), supporting the teaching of intelligent design alongside evolution, making abortions more difficult to access, against gay marriage and generally homophobic, killed 278 people via execution...
And so, based on this record, he decided he was the man to unseat Barack Hussein Obama at the end of his first term of President. He was initially viewed to be a friend of the tea party, charismatic, had the support of the George W. Bush political leadership team, and for the very briefest of moments: Rick Perry was the front runner and likely Republican nominee for President. Sadly (for him), he flat lined to last place and dropped out almost overnight, with Mitt Romney going on to win the nomination.
How did it happen so fast? This debate on the night of November 9th, 2011. He attempts to name three agencies he would eliminate in the government during a live debate. This was part of his "stump" speech: the speech that a candidate gives at every event, only adding in a paragraph or two to personalize for each event. He had listed the three agencies dozens, if not hundreds, of time. It is difficult to overstate the impact cutting the three agencies would have. Let alone the thousands of people who were regularly being told they would lose their jobs.
He only remembered the first two. It didn't go well. The agency he forgot (since it isn't actually mentioned in the video?): Energy.
In 2011, the Republicans held a primary election to select their opponent to run against Barack Obama. There were 14 candidates, this is the story of one of the losing candidates.
Rick Perry became the Governor of Texas in 2000, following the election of George W. Bush to the Presidency. He left a complex legacy: taking credit for economic growth that exactly mirrored the boom and bust of oil prices, becoming a/the US leader in wind energy, guiding the state to have the highest percentage of uninsured citizens (meaning many people who couldn't afford health care), supporting the teaching of intelligent design alongside evolution, making abortions more difficult to access, against gay marriage and generally homophobic, killed 278 people via execution...
And so, based on this record, he decided he was the man to unseat Barack Hussein Obama at the end of his first term of President. He was initially viewed to be a friend of the tea party, charismatic, had the support of the George W. Bush political leadership team, and for the very briefest of moments: Rick Perry was the front runner and likely Republican nominee for President. Sadly (for him), he flat lined to last place and dropped out almost overnight, with Mitt Romney going on to win the nomination.
How did it happen so fast? This debate on the night of November 9th, 2011. He attempts to name three agencies he would eliminate in the government during a live debate. This was part of his "stump" speech: the speech that a candidate gives at every event, only adding in a paragraph or two to personalize for each event. He had listed the three agencies dozens, if not hundreds, of time. It is difficult to overstate the impact cutting the three agencies would have. Let alone the thousands of people who were regularly being told they would lose their jobs.
He only remembered the first two. It didn't go well. The agency he forgot (since it isn't actually mentioned in the video?): Energy.
Last week Rick Perry was selected by President Elect Trump to be the head of the Energy Agency (the Energy Secretary).
We're Doomed: Starting at the beginning.
I'm going to pivot some of my writing to the fun small stories that I think aren't getting much attention that are...intriguing. Or terrifying.
But to start, here's the context that I'm writing from. I think it's important to be transparent with my beliefs, as I'm sure there are people from across the political spectrum who could read this:
But to start, here's the context that I'm writing from. I think it's important to be transparent with my beliefs, as I'm sure there are people from across the political spectrum who could read this:
- Trump was accused of sexually assaulting women during a Presidential election and won. It look improbable to impossible that the 12 women who accused him collaborated in any way. These accusations appear to have died out. It's hard to imagine that anything else in this story matters, yet: here we are.
- Trump is racist. Too many credible, proven examples are readibly available for me to prove any. If you disagree with this, probably stop reading. If you agree with this, and would point out that he won anyway: yup.
- The question about if Trump voters are racist and mysognistic is complex. I'm confident that many of them aren't knowingly. Similarly confident that their motivations for voting the way they did had nothing to do with offend (see: Trump's campaign manager telling us that Trump's voters knew the difference between what affected them and what offended them). But: If you voted for a racist, mysognistic, alleged sexual assaulter: I don't know how to defend the argument that you have to carry the implications that you're ok with those actions.
So, with those being the (likely) most important things I think about Trump, here are some secondary, yet incredibly powerful things:
- He's likely to be President. I'm not reading much about a growing community of Republican electors defecting (they need 37, they have 8). The smartest people I know in the Democratic party are spending their time getting ready to win elections at every level in 2018 and 2020.
- Trump's Presidency puts everything on the table. He risks economic collapse, nuclear war, rise of white supremacy, calamitous climate change, rise of Russian/Iranian/Chinese superpowers, complete rescattering of the current world order.
BUT - If I learned anything this election, it's that I don't know much. Collectively, we might not know much. What if Trump's actions improve inner cities? What if the likelihood of world peace is increased? If we don't know what Trump is going to do, if Trump doesn't know what Trump is going to do, then how do Terrorists plan to attack? How do the leaders of oppressive regimes prepare to negotiate?
The sheer scope of the things he puts on the table are overwhelming, and I find impossible to parse. Literally life on Earth as we know it. But...I actually can't say that means it's a worse case scenario in each and every area. We'll find out.
We're Doomed.
I am so angry. I owe a thousand apologies and have been spending pretty much all my time since the election either sick (bad cold), working, or thinking about how I was way to arrogant/wrong/etc. But I'm also so, incredibly angry.
For example:
ALL THESE EXAMPLES ARE FROM THE LAST NINE DAYS. NINE. NINE DAYS. JUST NINE MF DAYS. HE ISN'T EVEN PRESIDENT YET.
Trump has appointed racists, bigots and white supremacists to the most senior positions in government. Which takes attention away from the mysgonists and old white men who would take away a women's right to choose and believe that homosexuality can be treated. So this is horrifying and creates a feeling of powerlessness. How unbelievably shitty.
Or
Trump had a surrogate (high profile person who speaks on behalf of him) go on Fox News and say that Japanese Interment Camps were a precedent that could be applied to Muslims in America. When the Fox News reporter called him on this (!!!!!!!), he simply re-iterated his point. Are you fucking kidding me?
Or
Trump is talking to world leaders on telephone lines that are unsecured without briefings from any current government officials to provide context for each call. Maybe not the biggest disaster you say? Sure, except: it is. Hillary was routinely attacked for mismanaging her emails, which were still on secure servers, just not government servers. He's openly talking on phones with foreign leaders about who the fuck knows what.
Or, maybe a little more sinister? Sure.
A Russian government official admitted to Russia tampering with the US election in favour of Trump. I mean, what? What the actual fuck?
Or, something that involves a rich white guy buying his way out of trouble?
Trump was sued for fraud, for tens of millions of dollars, by students who paid insane amounts of money to attend Trump University, and were lied to about instructor quality, course offerings, and job prospects upon completion. He is paying off a $25million settlement to make it go away.
Or, maybe a little bit of "sure Rob: But how is HE profiting?"
President Elect Trump and his team gathered 100 foreign diplomats in Trump Tower, NY, and promoted staying at Trump Towers (including giveaways) while conducting their work. Be President and promote your hotel chain? Smart!
Or, something a little lower key? Why not.
Something smaller scale? Sure: Last night, the Vice President Elect went to see the hit broadway show Hamilton because irony. The crowd boo-ed the shit out of him, which is probably not the best way to respond. I would have bombarded him with questions about the above. Anyway, at the end of the show, one of the lead actors read out a note to Vice President Pence about how the cast were scared for their safety and rights. It was thoughtful, touching, and came across as genuine.
TRUMP RESPONDED WITH A TWEET THIS MORNING SAYING THAT THE CAST WERE RUDE TO THE VICE PRESIDENT AND SHOULD APOLOGIZE. HOLY SHIT.
I'm hearing a lot of "this is not normal" being the phrase used by progressives, and I disagree. Normal is the wrong word, although I see that they are trying to tell me to not get desensitized to this kind of behaviour. We need to understand that this is objectively ethically and morally wrong. This behaviour is manipulative, hateful, bullying and creeping up close to the border of a pure expression of evil.
It has, at minimum, inspired me to look inward for example of it in Canada. I've reached out to the Assembly of First Nations (AFN) to ask if they are open to support in advocating for clean water in the 100 plus Canadian communities that don't have it, who have been told they have to wait five years. I can't imagine the response I'd have if I was told I'd have to boil water for the next five years, and I could drive to a community that has been told that in my own province by tonight.
It might not be the same kind of thing happening in the states, but at least it's real and I can do something. Fuck Trump. Don't give him a chance. I want America, as a country, to prosper, but nobody owns him a chance.
For example:
ALL THESE EXAMPLES ARE FROM THE LAST NINE DAYS. NINE. NINE DAYS. JUST NINE MF DAYS. HE ISN'T EVEN PRESIDENT YET.
Trump has appointed racists, bigots and white supremacists to the most senior positions in government. Which takes attention away from the mysgonists and old white men who would take away a women's right to choose and believe that homosexuality can be treated. So this is horrifying and creates a feeling of powerlessness. How unbelievably shitty.
Or
Trump had a surrogate (high profile person who speaks on behalf of him) go on Fox News and say that Japanese Interment Camps were a precedent that could be applied to Muslims in America. When the Fox News reporter called him on this (!!!!!!!), he simply re-iterated his point. Are you fucking kidding me?
Or
Trump is talking to world leaders on telephone lines that are unsecured without briefings from any current government officials to provide context for each call. Maybe not the biggest disaster you say? Sure, except: it is. Hillary was routinely attacked for mismanaging her emails, which were still on secure servers, just not government servers. He's openly talking on phones with foreign leaders about who the fuck knows what.
Or, maybe a little more sinister? Sure.
A Russian government official admitted to Russia tampering with the US election in favour of Trump. I mean, what? What the actual fuck?
Or, something that involves a rich white guy buying his way out of trouble?
Trump was sued for fraud, for tens of millions of dollars, by students who paid insane amounts of money to attend Trump University, and were lied to about instructor quality, course offerings, and job prospects upon completion. He is paying off a $25million settlement to make it go away.
Or, maybe a little bit of "sure Rob: But how is HE profiting?"
President Elect Trump and his team gathered 100 foreign diplomats in Trump Tower, NY, and promoted staying at Trump Towers (including giveaways) while conducting their work. Be President and promote your hotel chain? Smart!
Or, something a little lower key? Why not.
Something smaller scale? Sure: Last night, the Vice President Elect went to see the hit broadway show Hamilton because irony. The crowd boo-ed the shit out of him, which is probably not the best way to respond. I would have bombarded him with questions about the above. Anyway, at the end of the show, one of the lead actors read out a note to Vice President Pence about how the cast were scared for their safety and rights. It was thoughtful, touching, and came across as genuine.
TRUMP RESPONDED WITH A TWEET THIS MORNING SAYING THAT THE CAST WERE RUDE TO THE VICE PRESIDENT AND SHOULD APOLOGIZE. HOLY SHIT.
None of this is acceptable. None of this is behaviour that should be tolerated. When Obama stepped in it early in his presidency, he offended a police officer somehow, he brought the guy to the White House to talk to him face to face.
I'm hearing a lot of "this is not normal" being the phrase used by progressives, and I disagree. Normal is the wrong word, although I see that they are trying to tell me to not get desensitized to this kind of behaviour. We need to understand that this is objectively ethically and morally wrong. This behaviour is manipulative, hateful, bullying and creeping up close to the border of a pure expression of evil.
It has, at minimum, inspired me to look inward for example of it in Canada. I've reached out to the Assembly of First Nations (AFN) to ask if they are open to support in advocating for clean water in the 100 plus Canadian communities that don't have it, who have been told they have to wait five years. I can't imagine the response I'd have if I was told I'd have to boil water for the next five years, and I could drive to a community that has been told that in my own province by tonight.
It might not be the same kind of thing happening in the states, but at least it's real and I can do something. Fuck Trump. Don't give him a chance. I want America, as a country, to prosper, but nobody owns him a chance.
We are not doomed: I'm thinking about you
I originally posted this to Facebook, but wanted to leave it here so I could find it again if needed. Maybe some of these words will resonate with you.
I'm thinking about the students I work with and for. I'm particularly thinking about the American students (and colleagues) at Guelph. I hope that, when we wake up tomorrow, we treat each other with compassion, empathy, curiosity and make big checks on our assumptions (e.g: who did they vote for? who did they want to win?) I hope that the American students we have on campus are treated as a valued part of our community, and not asked to explain what happened. I doubt they know. I hope they are not judged or rewarded for the actions of millions upon millions of people they have never met.
And, as I am starting to see across all my social media platforms, I'm thinking about the students not represented by the new president of the USA (essentially, all those who are not white, straight males). I hope that the election of a bigot, a racist, a homophobe, a misogynist and a sexist does not speak to them about their value as a person. I hope it does not affirm or spark similarly hateful beliefs of others.
Finally, I'm thinking about the women in my life, and...not being able to fully wrap my mind around the range of emotions they may be feeling.
For myself, I feel angry. Frustrated. Shocked. I don't understand what appears to be on the verge of happening. Even if Hillary pulls this out, I don't understand the 55 million people who signed off on Trump. This isn't to say that I hold them in contempt or judgement. My anger, frustration and disappointment stem from a belief that I could have done something and did not. I was overconfident. I was wrong. I am disappointed that the progress made in inspiring action in 2008 did not carry over to this election. I hope that instead of rushing to judge and condemn, that we respect and ask. For the people beyond hope, for those who live in the most abject of possible human conditions, I think I can put myself in the headspace where a vote for Trump could be a way forward. For those who are getting by, or even thriving, I'm confused and would love to know why. The words I use to describe Trump are, I'm pretty sure, objectively true. I could support each of them with a statement or action he has made. If they are true, then why cast a vote for him? Because you dislike Hillary? Do you not also dislike Trump? Do you have loyalty to the Republican brand that extends beyond values? Is there something he offered that I missed?
For those of you who are hurting, please take care of eachother. For those of you who are celebrating, enjoy the moment, and see if you can find kindness for those of us who are not. For all of us, keep those who's voices are systemically oppressed in mind, those who could not donate/volunteer/vote/advocate. They were powerless in this, please find respect for that and be mindful in your words.
I'm thinking about the students I work with and for. I'm particularly thinking about the American students (and colleagues) at Guelph. I hope that, when we wake up tomorrow, we treat each other with compassion, empathy, curiosity and make big checks on our assumptions (e.g: who did they vote for? who did they want to win?) I hope that the American students we have on campus are treated as a valued part of our community, and not asked to explain what happened. I doubt they know. I hope they are not judged or rewarded for the actions of millions upon millions of people they have never met.
And, as I am starting to see across all my social media platforms, I'm thinking about the students not represented by the new president of the USA (essentially, all those who are not white, straight males). I hope that the election of a bigot, a racist, a homophobe, a misogynist and a sexist does not speak to them about their value as a person. I hope it does not affirm or spark similarly hateful beliefs of others.
Finally, I'm thinking about the women in my life, and...not being able to fully wrap my mind around the range of emotions they may be feeling.
For myself, I feel angry. Frustrated. Shocked. I don't understand what appears to be on the verge of happening. Even if Hillary pulls this out, I don't understand the 55 million people who signed off on Trump. This isn't to say that I hold them in contempt or judgement. My anger, frustration and disappointment stem from a belief that I could have done something and did not. I was overconfident. I was wrong. I am disappointed that the progress made in inspiring action in 2008 did not carry over to this election. I hope that instead of rushing to judge and condemn, that we respect and ask. For the people beyond hope, for those who live in the most abject of possible human conditions, I think I can put myself in the headspace where a vote for Trump could be a way forward. For those who are getting by, or even thriving, I'm confused and would love to know why. The words I use to describe Trump are, I'm pretty sure, objectively true. I could support each of them with a statement or action he has made. If they are true, then why cast a vote for him? Because you dislike Hillary? Do you not also dislike Trump? Do you have loyalty to the Republican brand that extends beyond values? Is there something he offered that I missed?
For those of you who are hurting, please take care of eachother. For those of you who are celebrating, enjoy the moment, and see if you can find kindness for those of us who are not. For all of us, keep those who's voices are systemically oppressed in mind, those who could not donate/volunteer/vote/advocate. They were powerless in this, please find respect for that and be mindful in your words.
We are not doomed: Why the polls, and the polling aggregators, are wrong
The polls are wrong. The people who Trump have offended are more likely to vote than the polling models predict. The amount of people who voted is not included accurately in the polls, and these people have mostly voted Democrat (by demographics). It's going to be a Clinton landslide.
There have been reports on publicly conducted polls on a near hourly basis over the past two weeks. These are likely to dry up today and tomorrow, as polling these polls are mostly paid for by media outlets, and they tend to be less newsworthy and attention grabbing after people have voted.
I prefer fivethirtyeight.com, and Nate Silver, for getting my polling information. They take publicly available polls, and (with a pretty transparent methodology), combine them to form a kind of "poll of polls". They also have a prediction engine that combines market conditions, presidential favourability, incumbent parties, etc.
The narrative fed to us by most media organizations is that the race is tightening, and that Trump is more or less as likely to win as Clinton. This is essentially the same argument many media companies make for human caused climate change: one side has vastly more science and expertise behind it than the other, but both are presented equally.
Here are two factors that polling companies likely have wrong, because they are essentially impossible to incorporate, that indicate a Clinton blowout is coming on Tuesday:
There have been reports on publicly conducted polls on a near hourly basis over the past two weeks. These are likely to dry up today and tomorrow, as polling these polls are mostly paid for by media outlets, and they tend to be less newsworthy and attention grabbing after people have voted.
I prefer fivethirtyeight.com, and Nate Silver, for getting my polling information. They take publicly available polls, and (with a pretty transparent methodology), combine them to form a kind of "poll of polls". They also have a prediction engine that combines market conditions, presidential favourability, incumbent parties, etc.
The narrative fed to us by most media organizations is that the race is tightening, and that Trump is more or less as likely to win as Clinton. This is essentially the same argument many media companies make for human caused climate change: one side has vastly more science and expertise behind it than the other, but both are presented equally.
Here are two factors that polling companies likely have wrong, because they are essentially impossible to incorporate, that indicate a Clinton blowout is coming on Tuesday:
- Public polls can't accurately account for people who have already voted. As of Friday, there are reports that anywhere from 22-40 million people have already voted. Most key states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas, Arizona, etc.) report that the demographics largely favour Clinton compared to voter turnout in 2012.
- Demographics. Each poll, and each aggreggator of polls, uses a model of what they think the electorate will look like in 2016. They can use whatever information they want in creating these models, and it determines what identities are included in their reporting. This changes the number of people who are actually included in the polls:
- Women
- Men
- Hispanic/Black/Asian/White
- College Educated/Not College Educated.
We Are Not Doomed: Official Predictions
If you didn't receive one of my 17 accidental Facebook invites: Please bring friends and join...me? a group of us? whoever! at Bobby O'Briens in downtown Guelph from somewhere just before 6 until late to watch the election results.
With very little time left in the election, it will be difficult for either party to do anything that will influence results at this point. Hundreds of thousands of ballots have already been cast, and there just isn't enough time for either Hillary or The Offensive One to do anything, spin it, and have it stick. Expect many, many, many allegations...some of which may even be founded, but don't expect them to have an impact.
Here are my predictions, so that I can be ridiculed at a later date:
House of Representatives:
Currently: R-246, D-186
Democrats pick up a net total of 15 seats, Republicans keep control of the House 235-201.
Senate:
Democrats win 16 seats, Republicans win 17. Democrats take back majority of the Senate 50 D, 48 R, 2 I..
Currently: 54 R, 44 D, 2 I.
Democrats win in:
Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Maryland, Connecticut, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, North Carolina.
Republicans win in:
Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma, Both Dakotas, Iowa, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio.
North Carolina and Pennsylvania don't get called until later on in the week after election day.
President:
Hillary Wins.
Popular vote:
HRC - 49%
THE DONALD - 39%
Other Candidates - 12%
Electoral College
Hillary - 376. THE DONALD - 162
Hillary Wins:
(Notable First, as they're obvious long shots. then from east to west.):
Texas.
Alaska.
Maine (both), Nebraska (1/5)
NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, PA, VA, NC, FL, MI, IL, WI, MN, CO, NM, AZ, NV, WAS, OR, CA, HI.
THE DONALD WINS:
Iowa (sorry Obama team), Ohio
Nebraska (4/5)
WV, SC, GA, AL MS, TN, KY, IN, MO, AR, KS, OK, SD, ND, MT, WU, ID UT.
Other Random Predictions
It will be painfully obvious that the election is over by around 8:15pm (Ohio & North Carolina will be called), but they probably won't call that Hillary has won until 10pm, as West Coast voters can vote until as late as 11pm Eastern time. Turmp won't give a concession speech, but either: a) Will announce the launch of his new media empire. b) Insult President Clinton c) Imply that "his people" should demand a recount. Answer "c" scares me a little.
Poll Closing Times (EST)
Note, some states may get called before people have finished voting.
With very little time left in the election, it will be difficult for either party to do anything that will influence results at this point. Hundreds of thousands of ballots have already been cast, and there just isn't enough time for either Hillary or The Offensive One to do anything, spin it, and have it stick. Expect many, many, many allegations...some of which may even be founded, but don't expect them to have an impact.
Here are my predictions, so that I can be ridiculed at a later date:
House of Representatives:
Currently: R-246, D-186
Democrats pick up a net total of 15 seats, Republicans keep control of the House 235-201.
Senate:
Democrats win 16 seats, Republicans win 17. Democrats take back majority of the Senate 50 D, 48 R, 2 I..
Currently: 54 R, 44 D, 2 I.
Democrats win in:
Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Maryland, Connecticut, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, North Carolina.
Republicans win in:
Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma, Both Dakotas, Iowa, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio.
North Carolina and Pennsylvania don't get called until later on in the week after election day.
President:
Hillary Wins.
Popular vote:
HRC - 49%
THE DONALD - 39%
Other Candidates - 12%
Electoral College
Hillary - 376. THE DONALD - 162
Hillary Wins:
(Notable First, as they're obvious long shots. then from east to west.):
Texas.
Alaska.
Maine (both), Nebraska (1/5)
NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, PA, VA, NC, FL, MI, IL, WI, MN, CO, NM, AZ, NV, WAS, OR, CA, HI.
THE DONALD WINS:
Iowa (sorry Obama team), Ohio
Nebraska (4/5)
WV, SC, GA, AL MS, TN, KY, IN, MO, AR, KS, OK, SD, ND, MT, WU, ID UT.
Other Random Predictions
It will be painfully obvious that the election is over by around 8:15pm (Ohio & North Carolina will be called), but they probably won't call that Hillary has won until 10pm, as West Coast voters can vote until as late as 11pm Eastern time. Turmp won't give a concession speech, but either: a) Will announce the launch of his new media empire. b) Insult President Clinton c) Imply that "his people" should demand a recount. Answer "c" scares me a little.
Poll Closing Times (EST)
Note, some states may get called before people have finished voting.
- 6pm - Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina
- 7pm - Florida, Georgia, Vermont, Virginia, Indiana, Kentucky
- 7:30pm - North Carolina, Ohio
- 8pm - Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Maine, Maryland, Mass, NH, NH, Penn, RI, Tenn, Alabama, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee
- 8:30pm - Arkansas
- 9pm - Wyoming, New York, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas
- 10pm - Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah, Nevada
- 11pm - North Dakota, California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington
- Midnight - Alaska
We Are Not Doomed.
None of this is to say that anything about the audio of Donald leaked today is objectively worse than anything else he says, just that Republican leaders and Media influencers seem to be latching on to this in a major way.
We're Doomed: Love in the time of Doom
Let's pretend, optimistically, that political campaigns were sometimes about innovative, creative, edgy solutions to 21st century catastrophes. Let's imagine a place where the two major parties in the US nominated candidates who could articulate solutions to global, national, and local inequity. Global Warming. Harambe shootings. Poverty. Homelessness. Veterans with mental health illnesses. The rap music. Etc.
Since I can't even finish a paragraph about serious issues without my head starting to hurt about what Trump actually talks about, I'm going to write a short series of counter ideas to things he talks about:
Idea 1:
Trump says that Hillary Clinton's security should have their guns taken away. He also says that gun rights advocates could/should deal with Hillary Clinton. So, ok: let's put those two ideas into practice. In return, Trump has to jump into alligator infested waters near any of this properties in Florida. This seems like a fair quid pro quo to me.
http://www.npr.org/2016/09/16/494328717/trumps-second-amendment-rhetoric-again-veers-into-threatening-territory
Idea 2:
While running against HRC, a woman who has lived her entire life in heavily scrutinized public services, Trump has psudeo-doctors reveal his medical information on a psuedo-doctor reality TV show (Dr. Oz). He tells us repeatedly that HRC is sick, and demands to see her health records. At the same time, he refuses to oblige poltical convention and release his tax returns because, as his son says "Why would we do that? Then people would just ask questions about it?". Yes they would Donald Jr., yes they would.
So, instead of releasing his tax returns, Donald has to match every dollar spent by his campaign, by the RNC, and by the Super Political Action Committees supporting him to the charity of the internet's choice (once again, I assume this will end in a giant Harambe memorial). But maybe it finds a Zika vaccine, or infrastructure in impoverished nations. Or deals with the sickening poverty found all over the USA. Who knows.
More ideas some other time.
Since I can't even finish a paragraph about serious issues without my head starting to hurt about what Trump actually talks about, I'm going to write a short series of counter ideas to things he talks about:
Idea 1:
Trump says that Hillary Clinton's security should have their guns taken away. He also says that gun rights advocates could/should deal with Hillary Clinton. So, ok: let's put those two ideas into practice. In return, Trump has to jump into alligator infested waters near any of this properties in Florida. This seems like a fair quid pro quo to me.
http://www.npr.org/2016/09/16/494328717/trumps-second-amendment-rhetoric-again-veers-into-threatening-territory
Idea 2:
While running against HRC, a woman who has lived her entire life in heavily scrutinized public services, Trump has psudeo-doctors reveal his medical information on a psuedo-doctor reality TV show (Dr. Oz). He tells us repeatedly that HRC is sick, and demands to see her health records. At the same time, he refuses to oblige poltical convention and release his tax returns because, as his son says "Why would we do that? Then people would just ask questions about it?". Yes they would Donald Jr., yes they would.
So, instead of releasing his tax returns, Donald has to match every dollar spent by his campaign, by the RNC, and by the Super Political Action Committees supporting him to the charity of the internet's choice (once again, I assume this will end in a giant Harambe memorial). But maybe it finds a Zika vaccine, or infrastructure in impoverished nations. Or deals with the sickening poverty found all over the USA. Who knows.
More ideas some other time.
We're Doomed: (C) Stands for Cookie?
Hot Take: Hillary Clinton is not good with technology. From this story: http://gizmodo.com/hillary-clinton-had-11-blackberrys-while-secretary-of-s-1786108731
- HRC used 11 Blackberry phones at once. I mean....why? 11 Blackberries? By the seventh, doesn't one start to wonder "hey, maybe this isn't working out?"
- HRC was only vaguely aware that there was a computer server installed at her house. The person who installed it didn;t think it was for her. But he built it...in her house...for not her...oh god the stupidity here is killing me.
- And last, but most certainly not least:
HRC was the Secretary of State in the USA for Obama's first four years. I hope, early on in the job, that someone reviewed how information that was somewhere in the classified to top secret to kill-you-if-you-find-out spectrum was labelled.
But, apparently Hillary skipped alphabet day as there were 81 email chains that were marked classified on her unclassified personal server. This is a problem because, you know, state secrets starting wars and whatnot.
Then, being Hillary Clinton, she lied about it. Because of course she did. Or, even while months and months and months into this investigation, she claims to not have learned that emails marked "C" were classified. Either way, she found a new method of playing into the Republican and Trump construct that she can't be trusted.
In tennis, you call these unforced errors. In politics, I'd call them dealbreakers. With this many weeks to go in the campaign, there are millions and millions of voters being contacted by volunteers for Hillary every day, at the doors and on the phone. When they call someone, say the not-college-educated white voters who are overwhelmingly indicating support for Trump, that says "well, I'd vote for Hillary, but I have three jobs just to afford raising my family, I'm still struggling, voting for Clinton, Obama, Bush and whoever didn't work in the past, Hillary lied about her health, lied about her email and I know Trump is the antichrist...but at least he doesn't have a filter and nothing else has worked so far..." The volunteer will not be able to come up with a response.
Calmly though, the race is still about the big states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado,,maybe Michigan and Virginia). If enough non white voters turn out to vote, then none of this matters. If they stay home, HRC has a problem. She probably won't.
We're Doomed: I don't want to be doomed anymore (warning: strong language)
Ok! Although Florida will still do something dramatically stupid (no doubt), we now have to turn our attention back to how doomed we are.
Most people, by and large, don't spend a lot of attention on politics. There's been some research that it's around 4-10 minutes a week. Here's how this contributes to our current re-doomening.
THE DONALD, he who gets non stop attention from political pundits and TV news, while spending almost no money on advertising, has been pretty consistently doing the following:
1) Calling HRC "Crooked Hillary"
2) Saying that HRC lies
3) Saying that HRC is very ill, and hiding it
4) Praising the leadership of Vladmir Putin
5) Saying racist, mysognistic, homophobic, hateful, mean spirited, evil things
6) Turning over campaign leadership non stop.
He was so repetitive with points 1 to 3 that a lot of people sort of tuned it out. It is very similar to how he led the birther movement (the group that claims Obama is not American), or the group that says Obama is a secret Muslim. People I used to speak to door to door had heard those conspiracy theories so often that they kind of tuned them out after a while. There was no proof to back them up, there was a lot of proof to the contrary, so about 60-70% of the states just forgot about. The remainder get pretty brainwashed by media or local conservative leaders, and would agree that the sky was pink and Regan is still alive in Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity (American media moguls) told them.
Where this becomes a problem that could undo HRC is...SHE WAS MOTHERFUCKING UNBELIEVABLY FOR FUCK SAKE SICK AND SHE MOTHERFUCKING GODDAMN FOR FUCK SAKE DIDN'T TELL ANYONE.
(For the facts, here's a BBC story. We can all trust the BBC, right? http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37346293)
What happens next is going to be awful. For people who are busy leading their lives, and only spend a little bit of attention on this, they're likely to think "huh, Hillary is lying to us? Wow. Maybe Donald has a point. He can't be that bad, can he?". I feel comfortable guaranteeing that as Field Organizers and volunteers go door to door in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and other battleground states, they'll have completely reasonable people telling them "well, I was going to vote for Hillary, but now it turns out that Trump was right so I don't know what I'mm going to do. Maybe just stay home or vote Libertarian."
The moment a politician plays into the construct that their opponent has built for them, they can spend the rest of the election fighting their way out, and still lose, regardless of facts. John Kerry lost an election to George Bush because he was painted as a lying flip flopper, and it didn't matter if he actually was or not becuase Bush painted him into the corner.
Hillary may have just painted herself into the corner of being not trustworthy and not healthy. This may have been enough of a mistake to throw the stupid fucking election to Trump. Unbelievable, but true. She was already wildly unpopular, with polls showing that she was personally disliked almost as much as Trump.
And this doesn't even touch my next post, about how it turns out that she SENT CONFIDENTIAL EMAILS FROM PERSONAL ACCOUNTS, THAT WERE LABELLED (C). So yeah, there aren't storm clouds on the horizon. This is essentially a horror movie, and we're at the moment where the young woman has run into the forest to escape the killer, and it looks like she's about to get free.
Also, I hope Hillary recovers from her pneumonia soon, and the fact that she hid it from her staff doesn't imply it's something worse than pneumonia. And don't get me wrong, she was under no ethical imperative to keep us up to date on illnesses that are easy to treat, but it played exactly into the story that Trump built for her, which is such a batshitfuckinginsancecrazyasstupid thing to do.
Most people, by and large, don't spend a lot of attention on politics. There's been some research that it's around 4-10 minutes a week. Here's how this contributes to our current re-doomening.
THE DONALD, he who gets non stop attention from political pundits and TV news, while spending almost no money on advertising, has been pretty consistently doing the following:
1) Calling HRC "Crooked Hillary"
2) Saying that HRC lies
3) Saying that HRC is very ill, and hiding it
4) Praising the leadership of Vladmir Putin
5) Saying racist, mysognistic, homophobic, hateful, mean spirited, evil things
6) Turning over campaign leadership non stop.
He was so repetitive with points 1 to 3 that a lot of people sort of tuned it out. It is very similar to how he led the birther movement (the group that claims Obama is not American), or the group that says Obama is a secret Muslim. People I used to speak to door to door had heard those conspiracy theories so often that they kind of tuned them out after a while. There was no proof to back them up, there was a lot of proof to the contrary, so about 60-70% of the states just forgot about. The remainder get pretty brainwashed by media or local conservative leaders, and would agree that the sky was pink and Regan is still alive in Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity (American media moguls) told them.
Where this becomes a problem that could undo HRC is...SHE WAS MOTHERFUCKING UNBELIEVABLY FOR FUCK SAKE SICK AND SHE MOTHERFUCKING GODDAMN FOR FUCK SAKE DIDN'T TELL ANYONE.
(For the facts, here's a BBC story. We can all trust the BBC, right? http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37346293)
What happens next is going to be awful. For people who are busy leading their lives, and only spend a little bit of attention on this, they're likely to think "huh, Hillary is lying to us? Wow. Maybe Donald has a point. He can't be that bad, can he?". I feel comfortable guaranteeing that as Field Organizers and volunteers go door to door in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and other battleground states, they'll have completely reasonable people telling them "well, I was going to vote for Hillary, but now it turns out that Trump was right so I don't know what I'mm going to do. Maybe just stay home or vote Libertarian."
The moment a politician plays into the construct that their opponent has built for them, they can spend the rest of the election fighting their way out, and still lose, regardless of facts. John Kerry lost an election to George Bush because he was painted as a lying flip flopper, and it didn't matter if he actually was or not becuase Bush painted him into the corner.
Hillary may have just painted herself into the corner of being not trustworthy and not healthy. This may have been enough of a mistake to throw the stupid fucking election to Trump. Unbelievable, but true. She was already wildly unpopular, with polls showing that she was personally disliked almost as much as Trump.
And this doesn't even touch my next post, about how it turns out that she SENT CONFIDENTIAL EMAILS FROM PERSONAL ACCOUNTS, THAT WERE LABELLED (C). So yeah, there aren't storm clouds on the horizon. This is essentially a horror movie, and we're at the moment where the young woman has run into the forest to escape the killer, and it looks like she's about to get free.
Also, I hope Hillary recovers from her pneumonia soon, and the fact that she hid it from her staff doesn't imply it's something worse than pneumonia. And don't get me wrong, she was under no ethical imperative to keep us up to date on illnesses that are easy to treat, but it played exactly into the story that Trump built for her, which is such a batshitfuckinginsancecrazyasstupid thing to do.
Blame Florida: Its still HRC's election to lose. And it is still going to be Florida's fault.
President Hillary Clinton is still going to be the next President of the USA. Nothing can change that now. You may convince yourself to say the following things about THE DONALD
1) But you (and experts) said that about the primary
2) I don't know, I think it's rigged for him
3) He's a billionaire, of course he'll win
4) You can't trust politics, he could still win this
To which I would respond
1) There are complicated math and stats reasons to show the difference between this point in the Donald's primary win and the general election. Essentially, the same group of people have liked him from last summer until now. That group was large enough to make him the Republican nominee. It is definitely not large enough to have him win a general election.
2) It's not rigged for him. There is no secret cabal of billionaires who will rig this for him. There is a very public cabal of Billionaires, who are known and written about, that are not supporting him. These people have decided elections in the past, and they think Trump is unstable. Read a summary of Game Change 2012 to read their names, but a few are: the Koch brothers, Sheldon Adelson, Foster Friess, Paul Singer, Robert Mercer, Woody Johnson, Norman Braman, Ken Lagone, Joe Ricketts, Peter Thiel, Carl Icahn, Andrew Beal, Darwin Deason, Wilbur Ross
Of this list: Icahn, Beal, Deason, Johnson, Thiel are the only ones to have donated directly or indirectly to Trump. It is difficult to overstate how significant this is. The Trump campaign is running on a shoestring budget, with their first TV ad launching a couple days ago, and every state complaining about a lack of resources.
It isn't rigged.
3) See above. He doesn't have enough money to prop this up himself.
4) You can, actually, trust the voting process. Each campaign will spend hundreds of thousands on lawyers to monitor voting stations. It's pretty funny to watch this team actually, I've seen some that just sit outside in lawn chairs with coolers and a bbq all day because voting irregularities are beyond rare.
So, how will Florida blow this for Hillary?
Here's four stories that demonstrate how bad Florida is at this, taken at random:
1) They'll design the ballots so that they can't be scanned: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/26/palm-beach-county-florida-election_n_2025447.html
2) They'll decide not to count the votes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_election_recount)
3) They'll run out of ballots (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/reports-of-voting-problems-surface-in-florida-primary/)
4) They'll just lose ballot boxes (http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26856896/#.V7nc5pgrK70)
She'll still win, but something really stupid is going to happen in Florida. Maybe they'll end up casting their electoral votes for George Bush again.
Blame Florida: The DONALD nomination
As we're doomed comes to a close, it is time to start talking about the General Election, so I'll introduce my new series: Blame Florida. We can't know exactly how, but I can guarantee that in some way: Florida is going to screw this thing up. Whether it be through literally not figuring out how to cast a ballot (which led to the election of George W Bust in 2000), being the last state to call for Obama in a landslide election (Seriously: wtf), or generally repressing their voters...Florida is going to do something bat shit crazy on election day. I'm just preparing for it.
In this edition, THE DONALD was officially nominated by the Republican Party this week. The Republican party had a few day convention in Cleveland to celebrate it. The convention was a grand celebration in fucking up really basic details of event planning: mismanaged time, speakers going until 2 am, speeches being stolen/plagiarized, a near complete lack of credible people speaking to policy ideas, solutions or THE DONALD's readiness to be President. I'll probably write about the convention for fun in the near future.
But here's how we know that the convention was complete failure:
In this edition, THE DONALD was officially nominated by the Republican Party this week. The Republican party had a few day convention in Cleveland to celebrate it. The convention was a grand celebration in fucking up really basic details of event planning: mismanaged time, speakers going until 2 am, speeches being stolen/plagiarized, a near complete lack of credible people speaking to policy ideas, solutions or THE DONALD's readiness to be President. I'll probably write about the convention for fun in the near future.
But here's how we know that the convention was complete failure:
- He didn't get much of a popularity bump
- None of the core issues or campaign environment changed.
After a political convention, where talk about the party washes out news and social media, you hope to gain about five points on your opponent (like McCain did after his convention in 2008, when Sarah Palin first caught our attention). This week, Trump has gained about 2.8 points overall, while HRC has gained about 1. That's a complete failure, particularly with the Democrats about to have their convention.
In 2012, Romney had much of America convinced that Obama could not manage the economy or financial crisis. Most people believed that they were worse off than before Obama became President in '08. This was a crippling problem for the Democrats, until their convention, where good ol' boy WIlliam Jefferson Clinton (Bill Clinton), gave an absolutely lights-out speech clearly explaining how the US was better off. It had a dramatic impact on what the political nerds call the "underlying numbers" questions like "can he manage the economy" and "do I trust him" shot up through the roof for Obama, having been stuck below 50%.
Neither of these moments happened. None of the speeches given or actions that occured are likely to acheive the basic three things THE DONALD has to accomplish (he has to do all three):
- Persuade more undecided or independent voters to vote for him
- Persuade the people who voted for Obama in 2008 to stay home.
- Persuade more Republican voters to show up
From the speeches I saw this week, they would have a net zero impact. People who liked Trump, at best, will still like him. People who voted for Obama are probably more likely to vote for Obama now. The Republicans who don't like Trump, still don't like Trump.
Except for Florida. Who the eff knows what's going to happen there. My prediction this week: Florida gets attacked by ghost-pirates on election day, triggering a until-then unknown clause of the constitution that makes all of Florida's electoral votes invalid.
Stay out of trouble team, have a great day.
We're Doomed: Way Too Early Predictions
With the FBI stating that they are not going to pursue charges against HRC over her mismanagement of confidential and top secret information while Secretary of State, it's time for my WAY TOO EARLY predictions.
I'm using a combination of very reliable internet sources (the internet would never lie?), plus my knowledge of some of the get out the vote organizations in close races. Cook Report, Politico, Pollseter, Real Clear Politics and general US demographics.
For example: Marco Rubio is now running for Senate in Florida (having just tried to beat Trump for the Republican nomination for President). He was a very popular Senator, but with Democrats having eased travel restrictions to Cuba (large Cuban population in Florida), and Trump clearly being Racist (large Latino population in Florida), and Florida being potentially the state that will have the most money spent in it for advertising and staffing in the Presidential election...Democrats will likely beat Rubio.
President
HRC wins 347 electoral college votes. 47% of the popular vote
THE DONALD wins (?) 191 electoral college votes 40% of the popular vote
Other candidates: No seats, 13% of the popular vote. (Libertarian -10% and Green - 3%)
House of Representatives
Republicans: 229, Democrats: 205
Democrats make a net gain of 18 seats.
(state symbol and district number)
Democrats Add:
CA - 07, 10, 25
CO - 6
FL - 07, 10, 13, 26
IL - 10
IO - 01
ME - 02
MN - 03, 08
NH - 01
NV - 03, 04
NY - 01, 03, 19
VA - 04
Democrats Lose:
NB - 02
FL -02
Senate
Democrats 53
Republicans 47
Democrats Add:
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Democrats don't lose any seats
I'm using a combination of very reliable internet sources (the internet would never lie?), plus my knowledge of some of the get out the vote organizations in close races. Cook Report, Politico, Pollseter, Real Clear Politics and general US demographics.
For example: Marco Rubio is now running for Senate in Florida (having just tried to beat Trump for the Republican nomination for President). He was a very popular Senator, but with Democrats having eased travel restrictions to Cuba (large Cuban population in Florida), and Trump clearly being Racist (large Latino population in Florida), and Florida being potentially the state that will have the most money spent in it for advertising and staffing in the Presidential election...Democrats will likely beat Rubio.
President
HRC wins 347 electoral college votes. 47% of the popular vote
THE DONALD wins (?) 191 electoral college votes 40% of the popular vote
Other candidates: No seats, 13% of the popular vote. (Libertarian -10% and Green - 3%)
House of Representatives
Republicans: 229, Democrats: 205
Democrats make a net gain of 18 seats.
(state symbol and district number)
Democrats Add:
CA - 07, 10, 25
CO - 6
FL - 07, 10, 13, 26
IL - 10
IO - 01
ME - 02
MN - 03, 08
NH - 01
NV - 03, 04
NY - 01, 03, 19
VA - 04
Democrats Lose:
NB - 02
FL -02
Senate
Democrats 53
Republicans 47
Democrats Add:
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Democrats don't lose any seats
We're Doomed: The Winds of Doom
Quick update: We don't know anything new. There will be many invented stories that have only been created because people who are paid to talk on TV have to say something, and THE DONALD draws ratings. It's still incredibly unlikely that he can win, but nobody should say that with much certainty until after the labour day long weekend.
(of course, I do have a little wager on the outcome of this...)
With that said...if a vote were held today, HRC would win by a landslide. She'd win by historical margins in the electoral college, and possibly bring Democratic majorities to the Senate and Congress.
Which begs the question, what would she do?
In 2008: We knew that Obama was promising the idea of Change.
In 2012, we knew Obama promised to not be Mitt Romney.
This year, we know that:
THE DONALD stands for "you're angry!? I am also angry!!"
Bernie stood for "Revolution! And have you seen my glasses?"
Jeb! Bush stood for "Jeb!" "No really! My name is Jeb!"
HRC seems to stand for "I'm like Obama, but not quite..." and "seriously, it's my turn now" or "maybe if I just go away for a few months, people will literally beg me to be President instead of DONALD"
When Obama briefly had a majority of democrats in the House and in Senate, he saved the auto industry, invested an unprecedented amount of money in a stimulus package, completely overhauled the way Americans get health insurance, lessened the burden of student debt, changed the course of climate change, and allowed people to be openly homosexual in the military. There were other accomplishments, I remember these being the signature ones in his first two years when he had the type of majority HRC may have.
So....I wonder what Hilary would do? Her website isn't clear on this, listing dozens of priorities. The Washington Post suggests immigration reform and hundreds of millions of dollars on infrastructure in addition to mandatory paid family leave and medical leave.
Immigration reform is what politicians refer to as a third-rail issue. When you actually try to grab a hold of it (and change it), it electrocutes you. Reforming the current American approach to immigration will require about the same amount of political capitol that Obama spent on Health Care. Reminder: He was absolutely demonized for changing health care laws when he was in the middle of it. The last act of the massive campaign capacity he built with his volunteer mass was to overwhelm congresspeople and senators with calls in support of Obamacare. HRC may face a similar uphill battle, but she isn't showing signs of building the type of community outreach capacity that Obama has in 2008.
Everything after these promises is hazy, which is a little worrisome. She'll have the potential to force meaningful change through the American Government, but seems to have so many promises that she doesn't have any. She talks about tax, wall street, trade deals, early education, minimum wage, and other liberal favourites, but none seem to be thematic or passionate calls to action.
She has an opportunity to transform the American economy, to bridge the gap between the lower class and the 1% (let's agree middle class is rarely a thing), to provide for security in retirement or to advance the health care evolution even further. She could state a grand ambition (think Kennedy promising that Americans would go to the moon), like eradicating hunger or ending climate change....but nada. She could choose aspiration, which would allow her team to spread that message and bring communities together in support of her agenda, like we did in 2008. Instead, she appears to be choosing status quo.
I didn't support Bernie, because I didn't think he was capable of pulling it off (either winning, or if he won: accomplishing anything). But damn, I wish HRC was willing to take a little bit of a gamble. I bet her ground team does too.
(of course, I do have a little wager on the outcome of this...)
With that said...if a vote were held today, HRC would win by a landslide. She'd win by historical margins in the electoral college, and possibly bring Democratic majorities to the Senate and Congress.
Which begs the question, what would she do?
In 2008: We knew that Obama was promising the idea of Change.
In 2012, we knew Obama promised to not be Mitt Romney.
This year, we know that:
THE DONALD stands for "you're angry!? I am also angry!!"
Bernie stood for "Revolution! And have you seen my glasses?"
Jeb! Bush stood for "Jeb!" "No really! My name is Jeb!"
HRC seems to stand for "I'm like Obama, but not quite..." and "seriously, it's my turn now" or "maybe if I just go away for a few months, people will literally beg me to be President instead of DONALD"
When Obama briefly had a majority of democrats in the House and in Senate, he saved the auto industry, invested an unprecedented amount of money in a stimulus package, completely overhauled the way Americans get health insurance, lessened the burden of student debt, changed the course of climate change, and allowed people to be openly homosexual in the military. There were other accomplishments, I remember these being the signature ones in his first two years when he had the type of majority HRC may have.
So....I wonder what Hilary would do? Her website isn't clear on this, listing dozens of priorities. The Washington Post suggests immigration reform and hundreds of millions of dollars on infrastructure in addition to mandatory paid family leave and medical leave.
Immigration reform is what politicians refer to as a third-rail issue. When you actually try to grab a hold of it (and change it), it electrocutes you. Reforming the current American approach to immigration will require about the same amount of political capitol that Obama spent on Health Care. Reminder: He was absolutely demonized for changing health care laws when he was in the middle of it. The last act of the massive campaign capacity he built with his volunteer mass was to overwhelm congresspeople and senators with calls in support of Obamacare. HRC may face a similar uphill battle, but she isn't showing signs of building the type of community outreach capacity that Obama has in 2008.
Everything after these promises is hazy, which is a little worrisome. She'll have the potential to force meaningful change through the American Government, but seems to have so many promises that she doesn't have any. She talks about tax, wall street, trade deals, early education, minimum wage, and other liberal favourites, but none seem to be thematic or passionate calls to action.
She has an opportunity to transform the American economy, to bridge the gap between the lower class and the 1% (let's agree middle class is rarely a thing), to provide for security in retirement or to advance the health care evolution even further. She could state a grand ambition (think Kennedy promising that Americans would go to the moon), like eradicating hunger or ending climate change....but nada. She could choose aspiration, which would allow her team to spread that message and bring communities together in support of her agenda, like we did in 2008. Instead, she appears to be choosing status quo.
I didn't support Bernie, because I didn't think he was capable of pulling it off (either winning, or if he won: accomplishing anything). But damn, I wish HRC was willing to take a little bit of a gamble. I bet her ground team does too.
We're Doomed: If a Doom hibernates in the woods, does anyone care?
Get ready for HRC vs. THE DONALD: Rumble in the bungle, your a-list racist vs. she of a million cracks, AND LET'S GET READY TO....snore?
The campaign is about to enter what sailors would call the doldrums. Public schools are about to let out, or they have already. College students are working their summer jobs or travelling. It's likely to be hot out. Or, depending on where in the states people live, about to tornado or hurricane or flood through their houses. Nobody has time to click a tasty political link about what absolutely hate filled, racists, inane, hurtful, stupid thing THE DONALD said last, or on a link that provides your next bland, uninspiring, totally vanilla, political legacy link from HRC.
Any campaign I have worked on over the summer goes through this. People are less likely to open their doors when you knock, less likely to answer the phone and not at all likely to have formed an opinion. Overwhelming, the research shows, people are spending about 4-8 seconds a week paying attention to politics right now. You can expect blips when the conventions happen to offiically select the nominees, and another blip when each candidate selects their Vice President nominee, but generally it's going to be a snooze fest.
Major media outlets will continue to try and get our attention with manufactured stories (or, maybe, genuine reporting), but the next major event in this campaign is the end of the labour day weekend in September.
Practical implications of this:
The campaign is about to enter what sailors would call the doldrums. Public schools are about to let out, or they have already. College students are working their summer jobs or travelling. It's likely to be hot out. Or, depending on where in the states people live, about to tornado or hurricane or flood through their houses. Nobody has time to click a tasty political link about what absolutely hate filled, racists, inane, hurtful, stupid thing THE DONALD said last, or on a link that provides your next bland, uninspiring, totally vanilla, political legacy link from HRC.
Any campaign I have worked on over the summer goes through this. People are less likely to open their doors when you knock, less likely to answer the phone and not at all likely to have formed an opinion. Overwhelming, the research shows, people are spending about 4-8 seconds a week paying attention to politics right now. You can expect blips when the conventions happen to offiically select the nominees, and another blip when each candidate selects their Vice President nominee, but generally it's going to be a snooze fest.
Major media outlets will continue to try and get our attention with manufactured stories (or, maybe, genuine reporting), but the next major event in this campaign is the end of the labour day weekend in September.
Practical implications of this:
- Polls are going to change a lot after the labour day weekend, when people start to spend more time paying attention.
- Both campaigns will really whack at eachother with advertisements, tens of millions of dollars on tv spots trying to shape our opinions of the other candidate.
- This is largely done to win the "media" battle. Once media have settled in on a "narrative" about a candidate, it is hard to move them off. We tend to believe the media narrative, regardless of facts. As an example of this:
- Many people believe Obama is Muslim, and not born in the USA. This is factually inaccurate, but became part of the media narrative so it stuck
- Very little money will be spent by either candidate promoting themselves. THE DONALD has yet to spend money on advertisements that do much more than attack other people and refer to himself as the greatest. HRC desperately needs to show people how dangerous, racist, mysognistic, zenophobic, and underqualified THE DONALD is, so her ads will largely be about that.
We won't know if THE DONALD can win until September.
He probably can't. It will take a spectacular clusterfuck of an HRC campaign for him to win. He will look close, or maybe even winnning, but he can't win the battleground states. He has got this far on celebrity, money, and speaking in a way that people recognize is different and taps into their anger. He has about a quarter of the staff that the Republican party was planning on having, meaning there are no people organizing events, schmoozing local city councils, going door to door or making phone calls to back up his image and help him get his vote out. The democrats have an overwhelming structural advantage here, with a well trained organizer machine left over from the Obama years.
So, sit back, relax, let the doom take you to a sweet hibernation nap until September. Nothing meaningful will happen until then.
We're Doomed: Hold the Door!*
Quick recap:
Donald Trump has clinched the Republican nomination for President. This will become official in Cleveland in early July when the Republicans hold their convention.
Hilary Clinton has won the Democratic nomination, although it is still being reported as contested.
In 2008, Obama won the nomination after North Carolina voted on May 6, 2008. Those of us that who performed well in the Pennsylvania primary campaign for him that ended late April were sent to North Carolina to partner with campaign staffers in key areas. Theoretically, we should have been beating the crap out of the HRC campaign, but days before the vote we received a conference call from a semi-panicked state chairperson telling us that we were behind and something to the effect of "would regret it for the rest of our lives." This kind of panic was rampant in response to last minute, outlier polls that really didn't show what was happening in the bigger picture. We went on to win NC handily, followed by HRC refusing to drop out of the race until the last state had voted. A vindictive part of me is glad that Sanders is doing the same thing to her.
There's an important lesson to learn from that North Carolina poll and panicked call from a senior campaign staffer: You really, really have to put polls in context. The same situation famously happened in 2012, when right before the general election we were being told that Romney was going to beat Obama because of things like tightening national polls, and high profile reporters seeing many lawn signs for Romney in New York. That election was never going to be close, and Obama won by nearly historic amounts.
When you hear a poll, particularly one that says Trump is beating HRC, please remember the following:
And this analysis doesn't begin to consider questions like: Will non-white voters vote for Trump? How will that impact states with high percentages of non-white voters (eg: Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida...let alone the names currently allocated to the Repbulicand like Arizona). What percentage of women are going to vote for Trump (everywhere)? What about college educated (Virginia)?
News media are going to default to stories about this election being close. They are going to make Trump seem like a rational presidential candidate by telling a story like Trump accusing HRC of participating in killing a drug dealer in the 90s alongside stories of HRC campaign rally, ideas and missteps as if they were equivalent statements.
The email issue continues to be the main unknown in this race: If the DONALD can frame her as a criminal, then perhaps he can swing some states his direction. Otherwise, this race is already over and HRC has won.
*shoutout to any GoT fans. Heartbreaking story about Hodor.
Donald Trump has clinched the Republican nomination for President. This will become official in Cleveland in early July when the Republicans hold their convention.
Hilary Clinton has won the Democratic nomination, although it is still being reported as contested.
In 2008, Obama won the nomination after North Carolina voted on May 6, 2008. Those of us that who performed well in the Pennsylvania primary campaign for him that ended late April were sent to North Carolina to partner with campaign staffers in key areas. Theoretically, we should have been beating the crap out of the HRC campaign, but days before the vote we received a conference call from a semi-panicked state chairperson telling us that we were behind and something to the effect of "would regret it for the rest of our lives." This kind of panic was rampant in response to last minute, outlier polls that really didn't show what was happening in the bigger picture. We went on to win NC handily, followed by HRC refusing to drop out of the race until the last state had voted. A vindictive part of me is glad that Sanders is doing the same thing to her.
There's an important lesson to learn from that North Carolina poll and panicked call from a senior campaign staffer: You really, really have to put polls in context. The same situation famously happened in 2012, when right before the general election we were being told that Romney was going to beat Obama because of things like tightening national polls, and high profile reporters seeing many lawn signs for Romney in New York. That election was never going to be close, and Obama won by nearly historic amounts.
When you hear a poll, particularly one that says Trump is beating HRC, please remember the following:
- The national percentage of support for each candidate means absolutely nothing. Each state is allocated a number of votes (called Electoral College votes) for President based on their proportion of the population from the last census. The total number of votes needed to win is 270 of the 538 total.
- Electoral College votes are largely winner take all for each state. Nebraska and Maine use slightly different rules.
- If there is a tie, things can get very very very weird. Not going to get into that today.
- Right now you can say with near 100% certainty that HRC can not possibly get less than 217 votes, and Trump can't get less than 191. http://www.270towin.com/
- This leaves 130 electoral votes up for grabs, with HRC needing 53.
- Here are the states that are not allocated above:
- State Name, Number of electoral college votes, current party registration breakdown
- Florida (29), D38.8-R35.0
- Ohio (18), R42-D41
- North Carolina (15), D41.7-R30.4
- Virginia (13), R42-D40
- Wisconsin (10), D43-R41
- Colorado (9), R32.9-D30.9
- Nevada (6) D39.7-R34.6
- Iowa (6), R32-D31.1
- New Hampshire (4) , R30.1 D 27.2
And this analysis doesn't begin to consider questions like: Will non-white voters vote for Trump? How will that impact states with high percentages of non-white voters (eg: Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida...let alone the names currently allocated to the Repbulicand like Arizona). What percentage of women are going to vote for Trump (everywhere)? What about college educated (Virginia)?
News media are going to default to stories about this election being close. They are going to make Trump seem like a rational presidential candidate by telling a story like Trump accusing HRC of participating in killing a drug dealer in the 90s alongside stories of HRC campaign rally, ideas and missteps as if they were equivalent statements.
The email issue continues to be the main unknown in this race: If the DONALD can frame her as a criminal, then perhaps he can swing some states his direction. Otherwise, this race is already over and HRC has won.
*shoutout to any GoT fans. Heartbreaking story about Hodor.
We're Doomed: Oh dear
Quick update: OH MY GOD WHY WON'T THEY MAKE IT STOP FOR THE LOVE OF WHATEVER YOU HOLD SACRED PLEASE MAKE THEM STOP WE MUST BE ABLE TO DO BETTER THAN THIS.
Clinton won the nomination in February, some people still hold out hope that isn't the case. Unfortunately "facts" and "math" are against Sanders, he'll stay on through the Democratic Convention because...reasons...but Clinton is the Democratic nominee.
Let's hope she doesn't get indicted for the email thing. (click here for the latest in the investigation and possible outcomes: http://www.politico.com/news/hillary-clinton-emails)
And, in the other corner:
Somehow, Republican voters demonstrated a feeling that can best be described as "ahh, fuck it" in five states that held primaries yesterday. The Scorecard (overall):
THE TRUMPENING.
Trump v. Clinton 2016 is coming, and it is going to be an absolute disgrace. Trump has already said that "If Hilary was a man, she would only be getting 5% of the vote"...so we're already into gendered attacks from a white male.
Clinton won the nomination in February, some people still hold out hope that isn't the case. Unfortunately "facts" and "math" are against Sanders, he'll stay on through the Democratic Convention because...reasons...but Clinton is the Democratic nominee.
Let's hope she doesn't get indicted for the email thing. (click here for the latest in the investigation and possible outcomes: http://www.politico.com/news/hillary-clinton-emails)
And, in the other corner:
Somehow, Republican voters demonstrated a feeling that can best be described as "ahh, fuck it" in five states that held primaries yesterday. The Scorecard (overall):
- Trump - 954 delegates
- Cruz - 562 delegates
- Rubio (no longer running) - 171 delegates still bound to vote for him in the first round
- Kasich - 153
- Technically uncommitted, but their state vote for Trump - 57
- Other - 16
- Remaining to be awarded: 616 delegates in 10 primaries, with California being the largest by far (172 total).
- Needed to win on the first ballot at the July convention outright: 1,237
- Trump remaining to clinch nomination on first ballot: 283
THE TRUMPENING.
Trump v. Clinton 2016 is coming, and it is going to be an absolute disgrace. Trump has already said that "If Hilary was a man, she would only be getting 5% of the vote"...so we're already into gendered attacks from a white male.
We're Doomed: Cruz-ing for a Dooming
It's time we sat down and had a chat about Ted Cruz. Presented, in no particular order, here are some facts related to or about Ted Cruz the man, the Presidential Candidate his time as a Solicitor General, and his time as Senator:
(I'll provide links, but I promise these are all true)
(I'll provide links, but I promise these are all true)
- He LEGALLY CHALLENGED human's right to masturbate.
- “There is no substantive-due-process right to stimulate one’s genitals,” (Cruz, 2007)
- Ted Cruz is a Republican Senator.
- Another Republican Senator once said "If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you."
- Bonus Fact: the Senator was Lindsey Graham, who was also a Presidential candidate at one point in this cycle.
- Barack Obama spent a LOT of his '08 candidacy and early Presidential years defending the fact that he was American, going to the point of publicly releasing his Birth certificate to combat the so called "Birther" movement.
- Ted Cruz was, in fact, born in Canada.
- Ted Cruz wants to deport ALL illegal aliens in the USA.
- lesser known candidate DONALD TRUMP. Wants to deport them, but "keep the good ones"
- This includes people like children of illegal immigrants, who have lived their whole lives in the US.
- Ted Cruz has stated that having access to abortion is the real war on women.
- Bills Ted Cruz voted against while in Senate:
- James Zadroga 9/11 Health and Compensation Act (gives health care to first responders of 9/11)
- Disaster Relief Appropriateions Act (provided funds for the disaster of Hurricane Sandy)
- Violence Against Women Reauthorization Act
- Employment Non Descrimination Act
- (All of these passed without his support)
- Of all Senators between 2012-2016, Senator Cruz had the fewest Democratic Co-Sponsors on legislation he put forward.
- Ted Cruz led the 2013 Goverment shutdown
- He travelled to Kentucky to demonstrate public support for Kim Davis, the county clerk who refused to issue marraige licenses to homosexual couples after the Supreme Court ruled they could marry across the country.
- This is the same woman the Pope accidentally met. Oops.
- He disagress with climate scientific conclusion on climate change.
- Which, by the way, does agree that the earth's climate naturally cools and heats. Just not at the extreme rates that we have created for ourselves. Sigh, climate change deniers annoy me.
We're Doomed: Cleveland Rocks edititon
v
Some of you might not be sports fans the way I am. I have an undergrad with a Phys Ed major, and my favourite writers (Hunter Thompson, Bill Simmons, Chuck Closterman) all love(d) and write (wrote) about sports. Here is the link to how cursed the city of Cleveland is (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland_sports_curse). Its' pretty ridiculous.
So naturally, in the middle of the sumer, the culmination of the Republican process of picking their nominee will be in Cleveland. At this point, it has become pretty clear that THE DONALD will not have enough delegates to become the nominee. Additionally, nobody else will. Which begs the question.
WHAT THE FUCK IS A DELEGATE?
Let me take you back to Pittsburgh, 2008. I arrived in Pittsburgh having been told: "there are two staff members there. One has been there for a week, one has been there for two months organizing delegates and setting up the Western Pennsylvania campaign. Her name is Lauren Watts, and although we have lost touch there is nothing I wouldn't do for her.
Lauren was an organizer in New Hampshire in 2007/2008 for Obama, and they got their souls crushed when HRC came from behind to keep her campaign alive by Obama. In the aftermath, she was sent to Pennsylvania, which wasn't going to vote on Obama/Hilary for something like five months, to organize delegate selection. This meant that she went around Western Pennsyvlania, using contact lists of current low level democrat members who may have held office or sat on a committee, and asked them if they would go to Denver for the Democratic Party 2008 convention as part of the Obama team if Obama won their area.
Delegates are the people who are actually sent to the partie's convetion to vote for the candidate. For the past fifty years or so, they've had no influence, decision making, or power. They had been selected by their party (Democrat or Republican) to vote for a candidate (regardless of their person feelings/ideas), and for this generation every candidate has gone into the convention with enough votes to win on the first ballot.
So...you have to think about the kind of qualifications the party is looking for in a delegate:
- Can you travel to a political convention mid-Summer
- Are you willing to stand there and clap for your nominee while someone else casts their votes for you.
- Are you willing to stick around for a few days and fill seats for speeches
- Will you please not say anything so outrageous that it make national news
- Can you pay some/all of your own way.
- Will you do everything your State boss tells you to do?
- Will you volunteer for all of this?
- If you do anything against what we are asking for, your future in the party is over.
It becomes pretty limiting pretty quickly. Anyone with a job that didn't plan a vacation has to say no. Parents generally have to say no. Etc. Every delegate I ever met was an...eclectic and unique...individual that I would not want to put in charge of picking my outfit for the day, let alone the next Presidential candidate for either major party. By and large, every delegate is allowed to vote however they would like after the first ballot. So if their state went to Cruz, they vote for Cruz the first time they are asked to vote. Every time they are asked to vote after that, they can vote for literally whoever they want. I could theoretically go to Cleveland and become the Republican party nominee, there is no need for a person to have participated in any of the voting so far.
So, THE DONALD is going to fall short of the 1,273 delegates he needs. Cruz will have less delegates than THE DONALD. Ultimately, this means that the actual selection of the Presidential candidate for the Republican party nominee will be done by delegates who are making snap decisions, who will be offered jobs/money/bribes and anything you can imagine. Picture a bunch of billioniares walking around a Best Western where they know the 40 Republican delegates from Arkansas is staying, ready to do whatever it takes to persuade these 40 individuals (who have regular jobs in their day to day life...a bunch of teachers/contractors/etc.) to vote a certain way for a Presidential nominee, and there is no way of tracking those conversations?
Also remember that THE DONALD has been inciting violence and offering threats, so assume that in addition to incentives, payoffs, and bribes, they will have beatdowns, private security forces, large scale fights and intimidation.
SO. MUCH. DOOM.
Coming up soon: If THE DONALD is offering the Moose Tracks of Doom, what flavour of DOOM is Cruz offering?
So, THE DONALD is going to fall short of the 1,273 delegates he needs. Cruz will have less delegates than THE DONALD. Ultimately, this means that the actual selection of the Presidential candidate for the Republican party nominee will be done by delegates who are making snap decisions, who will be offered jobs/money/bribes and anything you can imagine. Picture a bunch of billioniares walking around a Best Western where they know the 40 Republican delegates from Arkansas is staying, ready to do whatever it takes to persuade these 40 individuals (who have regular jobs in their day to day life...a bunch of teachers/contractors/etc.) to vote a certain way for a Presidential nominee, and there is no way of tracking those conversations?
Also remember that THE DONALD has been inciting violence and offering threats, so assume that in addition to incentives, payoffs, and bribes, they will have beatdowns, private security forces, large scale fights and intimidation.
SO. MUCH. DOOM.
Coming up soon: If THE DONALD is offering the Moose Tracks of Doom, what flavour of DOOM is Cruz offering?
update: no really, you can buy delegates http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/04/politics/contested-convention-bribing-delegates/index.html
We're Doomed: Have we gone all the way around the doomed spectrum?
Before I get started: If you enjoy this blog you'll probably enjoy what I think is the best podcast out right now "Keeping it 1600" (Address of the White House: 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue). It's on a podcast network called Channel 33, easy to find from soundcloud, stitcher and itunes.
Like a snake eating it's tail, we may be approaching coming full circle around the doom continium. Here are some actual things that The Donald said while campaigning this week (I don't have links, you can find them easily enough):
Like a snake eating it's tail, we may be approaching coming full circle around the doom continium. Here are some actual things that The Donald said while campaigning this week (I don't have links, you can find them easily enough):
- He doesn't rule out using nuclear weapons. AGAINST EUROPE.
I'm going to interrupt my blog here. Donald Trump, in an interview about Nuclear Weapons, said he doesn't rule out dropping an atomic bomb on Europe. Because...Greek financial crisis? French fries? Soccer? I mean...what the fuck?
Back to the list:
- The National Enquirer reported that Ted Cruz may have cheated on his wife. The Donald's campaign IMMEDIATELY SENT OUT A PRESS RELEASE SAYING "WELL....THE ENQUIRER HAS BEEN RIGHT BEFORE"
Sorry, have to interrupt my factual recap of the week again: THE FUCKING NATIONAL ENQUIRER? People my age will remember this as the magazine in grocery stores that reported on Alien babies. Why the fuck would a candidate for President of the United States, and passionate European bombing enthusiast, send out an unprompted press release about this from such a ridiculous source? Dear god.
Ok, I'm breathing normally again, there can't be anything else, right?
- In an odd moment that must have been an esteemed interviewer (Chris Matthews) wondering what he could get THE DONALD to say, Matthews asked Donald if women should be punished for having abortions.
Uhh, not if women should have abortions...if they should be punished for having them. Quick note here, THE DONALD is the only Republican candidate to praise Planned Parenthood for the work they do for womens health. So naturally...
OH MY GOD. ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME. FOR REAL? NO. THIS CAN'T BE HAPPENING. THE DONALD SAID WOMEN SHOULD BE PUNISHED FOR HAVING ABORTIONS.
So...uhh...yeah. The Donald may have gone so far around the bend that he MAY not win the nomination. He will still get the most delegates going into the convention, but not enough to win. It's possible that he is now talking at such an extreme edge of crazy sh*t that, even if he only falls like 100 delegates short of the 1,237 that he needs, literally 0 delegates will switch from another candidate to join him....almost for sure making Ted Cruz the nominee.
Which, in our Ouroboros of doom, brings us back to the fact that Ted Canadian Cruz is not better than Trump. More on that someday soon.
We're Doomed, could we un-doom for a minute?
Nope! Just building you up to beat you back down. We are definitely doomed.
But it doesn't make sense, right? I mean, the fact that this American election seems to be flying apart at the seams...could be solved by an ounce of what one might say is common sense?
Answer: No. Here's a quote from a goodbye to Rob Ford that explains the voters supporting Trump:
When I worked on the Obama '08, I connected with a lot of people who I now assume are Trump supporters. These are people like the white, male electrician who walked into a campaign office when I worked in Pittsburgh and happened to be there with just one other volunteer: a black guy. This was right around when race became the focal point of the Pennsylvania primary, because the press re-discovered that Obama's pastor in Chicago was saying extreme, hateful, occasionally hateful things (this is the guy that was saying "God Damn America").
The electrician and the volunteer began chatting, and the electrician said that he wasn't going to vote for Obama because "I don't want my daughter to learn about racism since racism is over."
The two of them talked for a couple hours, and I can't say for sure if the electrician learned anything over the course of the conversation. I participated enough to learn of the stunning unintentional, unknowing ignorance of broad societal issues of the electrician. He hadn't bumped into a moment in his life that forced him to learn about the impact that thousands of years of oppression has on a race, how it puts them in a (North American) societal disadvantage from day 1 of their lives. I'm not going to expand on an argument about white privilege here, outside of stating that it exists and I work hard to remain aware of mine.
There are hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of voters who wake up, go to work, come home to eat and maybe play with their kids before going to bed without watching the news, reading a paper, the internet, etc. They don't care about Obama being in Cuba, or the reasons that bombs went off in Brussels. They are worried about getting to work, keeping their jobs, having enough money at home. So when Trump steps forward and speaks solely to their needs, speaks about jobs being lost to Mexicans, how we used to "win", how people used to solve problems on their own, that he'll put money back in their pocket through replacing Obamacare with 'something amazing', etc...the lesson is this: There are a lot of people who just want their lives to be a little bit easier, and they are tired of politicians who don't seem able to do it. A guy coming forward who says (paraphrasing) "I'm not like these wimps, you can trust me to do it"....that's attractive to them.
Ongoing Prediction: Trump v. Clinton, with the election decided by an FBI indicment (or lack thereof). Followed closely by Anarchy v. Trump v. Clinton v. Romney/Ryan.
But it doesn't make sense, right? I mean, the fact that this American election seems to be flying apart at the seams...could be solved by an ounce of what one might say is common sense?
Answer: No. Here's a quote from a goodbye to Rob Ford that explains the voters supporting Trump:
"They [get] up too early, [work] too hard, earned too little, paid too much for rent, food, transportation and taxes, then collapsed into bed too late and slept too little."
When I worked on the Obama '08, I connected with a lot of people who I now assume are Trump supporters. These are people like the white, male electrician who walked into a campaign office when I worked in Pittsburgh and happened to be there with just one other volunteer: a black guy. This was right around when race became the focal point of the Pennsylvania primary, because the press re-discovered that Obama's pastor in Chicago was saying extreme, hateful, occasionally hateful things (this is the guy that was saying "God Damn America").
The electrician and the volunteer began chatting, and the electrician said that he wasn't going to vote for Obama because "I don't want my daughter to learn about racism since racism is over."
The two of them talked for a couple hours, and I can't say for sure if the electrician learned anything over the course of the conversation. I participated enough to learn of the stunning unintentional, unknowing ignorance of broad societal issues of the electrician. He hadn't bumped into a moment in his life that forced him to learn about the impact that thousands of years of oppression has on a race, how it puts them in a (North American) societal disadvantage from day 1 of their lives. I'm not going to expand on an argument about white privilege here, outside of stating that it exists and I work hard to remain aware of mine.
There are hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of voters who wake up, go to work, come home to eat and maybe play with their kids before going to bed without watching the news, reading a paper, the internet, etc. They don't care about Obama being in Cuba, or the reasons that bombs went off in Brussels. They are worried about getting to work, keeping their jobs, having enough money at home. So when Trump steps forward and speaks solely to their needs, speaks about jobs being lost to Mexicans, how we used to "win", how people used to solve problems on their own, that he'll put money back in their pocket through replacing Obamacare with 'something amazing', etc...the lesson is this: There are a lot of people who just want their lives to be a little bit easier, and they are tired of politicians who don't seem able to do it. A guy coming forward who says (paraphrasing) "I'm not like these wimps, you can trust me to do it"....that's attractive to them.
Ongoing Prediction: Trump v. Clinton, with the election decided by an FBI indicment (or lack thereof). Followed closely by Anarchy v. Trump v. Clinton v. Romney/Ryan.
We're Doomed: Keep on Dooming.
Still doomed. Very, very doomed. Not just talking about my March Madness Bracket. Doom. I'm still going to use humour in this, but the recent violence around Trump Rallies has moved this into the "Are Americans about to start attacking eachother in the street" on a large scale category. Between Black Lives Matter, and the violence/anger of the Trump candidacy...it's scary. Here's hoping sanity is on the way.
(Inside joke for my Obama campaign friends: Any chance that Jason Green/Paul Tewes/Jeremy Bird/Joy/Maggie/Jack/Homer/Katy/etc are going to save us?)
Donald Trump needs 550 delegates to become the Repulbican nominee, there are 900 delegates left in the remaining Republican Primaries. All his competition has dropped out, except Ted Cruz. Fun Fact: Ted Cruz is not more sane than Donald Trump. No seriously, you're reading this right now thinking "ha ha Robert, Donald Trump is the Mayor of Crazy-Pants-Town", but no: YOU'RE WRONG. Ted Cruz says the same things, maybe a little less misogynistic, but doesn't do it with the style of Trump.
Regardless, Trump would need to get a hair over 60% of the remaining delegates, but since he struggles to get over 40% of the vote, he won't. Cruz has no mathematical path to get the remaining delegates,
So, we're headed to a convention where no candidate has the majority of the Republican delegates and the Republican Party will light it's hair on fire. I'm not sure that's a joke, someone may literally light their hair on fire.
HRC has won the Democratic Primary, "The Media" are just dragging out the Sanders campaign chances so they have something to write about on the Democratic side. The next story to happen here will be her VP choice...I'm keeping all my fingers and toes crossed for Booker. Failing that: Warren. Maybe a successful Latino mayor as third choice?
The biggest story coming after that? The FBI indictment. If it comes, she could face anything from no punishment to a fine and probation to jail time. If it happens, she will get absolutely beat down in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin. She'll need to win three of those to be President.
I haven't seen any reporting on what happens if she drops out of the race after the conventions mid-summer. I imagine it will be unpleasant.
We're Doomed: Yup!
Hilllary Clinton (HRC) is still 100%, definitely, absolutely going to be the nominee for the Democratic party. It might be worthwhile to start thinking about who her Vice President will be. A couple things that she may be thinking about:
- Who is she comfortable having take over for her if she passes away while in office?
- Will the attract support she doesn't already command?
- Who can she select that will make a natural Presidential candidate in 8 years?
- Who can attack the Republicans while she stays out of the mud?
- Who can she find that balances her weaknesses and strengths? Alternatively: Who can she find that will reinforce her strengths?
The answer to question 3 seems to be Warren and Booker (to me, anyway), both of whom would do well in addressing her weaknesses as well. Alternatively she may turn to someone with a military background or a strong tie to that community (like Jim Webb). I don't see her going with an older white male. The former mayor of San Antonio, Castro, gets mentioned in this debate publicly, but I don't know enough about him to comment.
Meanwhile let's catch up with the Republican Primary:
Trump - 384
Cruz - 300
Rubio - Michael Jordan crying face emoji (151)
Kasich - 37
Although it looks close between Cruz and Trump, it is REALLY hard to close a gap of any kind as almost every state awards delegates proportionally to percentage of vote, and Trump polls between 25-35% of support basically everywhere. Expect Cruz, Rubio and Kasich to all pick up more delegates than Trump this week, as each of their home states vote and a couple are winnter-take-all for delegates. Expect this to not impact Trump maintaining his lead, but potentially not getting the 1,237 delegates he needs.
update: Gawker.com implicitly agrees with my premise. http://gawker.com/ted-cruz-please-help-us-we-have-no-idea-how-to-stop-d-1763284642
We're Doomed: Are we still doomed?
Super Tuesday has come and gone...and largely there aren't a lot of surprises. The trends from the last two weeks continues:
Republicans Melting Down like a cheap fondue
Republicans Melting Down like a cheap fondue
- THE DONALD has now fought with the Pope, took days to disavow an endorsement from the KKK, endured insults to his sexual prowess and endowment, had to talk about the lawsuit he is facing for TRUMP University....and is now an even bigger front runner than before.
- In the primary/cacuss system, very few states are winner-take-all, where the nominee hopeful takes all of the votes from that state. Instead, they are broken down by percentages, with a bottom end threshold needed to get the minimum number of delegates. There are some large winner-take-all states coming up (Florida), but it is nearly mathematically impossible for Cruz or Rubio to catch THE DONALD, without THE DONALD all of a sudden getting less than 15% of the vote for the rest of the primary.
- Rubio did so poorly, and got so few delegates (82) on Super Tuesday, that he is all but out of the race. His only reason to hang on at this point is to hope for a brokered conention, much like John Hines from The West Wing (note: did not work out well for Hines).
- The current people in positions of influence of the Republican party, like Mitch McConnell, John Boehner and Mitt Romney are running around like chickens who's heads were cut off 20 years ago and they still haven't realized it. They are openly talking about not supporting THE DONALD if he wins and insinuating that the party may splinter. They appear to not be taking into account that it is members of the Republican party who are voting for THE DONALD. So...#leadership?
- Bernie Sanders has told us we need a revolution, and he's the guy to do it. The Democratic Party voters have told him "No Thanks!" HRC is going to be the Democratic nominee, I'd guess there's backchannel conversations about how the Bern can gracefully leave the race.
- Next question for the Dems: Who will HRC pick as VP? (fingers crossed for Cory Booker or Elizabeth Warren). How will she go after Trump?
- Oh yeah: and did she knowingly email top secret, secret, or confidential information using her person account? If she did: Did this information end up with people it shouldn't have? Is she going to face charges? http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/04/02/396823014/fact-check-hillary-clinton-those-emails-and-the-law
We're Doomed: Hilary Clinton (HRC) vs. Trump edition
If you just finished reading my "We're Doomed: Donald Trump" edition, welcome: it gets worse.
Hillary Clinton is going to beat Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination, he's made a great run, but is going to get stampeded on Super Tuesday. He may hang around for a while but won't mathematically be able to catch HRC.
Should any bias creep in: I have campaigned against HRC, and find her to be an un-likeable and un-charismatic candidate. I think she has gravitas, and experience, but am unsure if she is well suited t be President. She is probably the best of the remaining presidential candidates for both parties, but in addition to everything I just listed she has one major flaw: her use of email.
HRC was the Secretary of State for the US from 2009-2013. In this period of time she oversaw a period of massive global change and unrest. Regardless of your view on her handling of situations like Arab Spring, Benghazi, National Security, Drones, Espionage, etc....there are a few things that, if established as fact, will absolutely make her un-electable:
(I am aware these are big, sweeping statements about areas with vast diversity in every county, but by and large I think I am capturing the majority of the population in these states)
With THE DONALD's essentially unlimited budget, and his now proven ability to pummel another candidate as he did to Jeb! Bush, giving him actual facts about a Presidential Candidate committing illegal acts with National Security information...I don't see how HRC would be able to move from 232 electoral college votes to 270. Even moving Pennsylvania and Colorado, the most reliably Democratic of the five, into her column still leaves DRC 9 electoral college votes short, with none of the remainder likely to go her way.
We're doomed.
Hillary Clinton is going to beat Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination, he's made a great run, but is going to get stampeded on Super Tuesday. He may hang around for a while but won't mathematically be able to catch HRC.
Should any bias creep in: I have campaigned against HRC, and find her to be an un-likeable and un-charismatic candidate. I think she has gravitas, and experience, but am unsure if she is well suited t be President. She is probably the best of the remaining presidential candidates for both parties, but in addition to everything I just listed she has one major flaw: her use of email.
HRC was the Secretary of State for the US from 2009-2013. In this period of time she oversaw a period of massive global change and unrest. Regardless of your view on her handling of situations like Arab Spring, Benghazi, National Security, Drones, Espionage, etc....there are a few things that, if established as fact, will absolutely make her un-electable:
- She sent email, from her personal account, that contained sensitive government information. There is debate about whether or not the information was labelled classified at the time, the FBI is currently investigating.
- If this information was found to be classified, and HRC used her personal email to communicate it, she will likely be in legal trouble.
- Even without the legal trouble, it will be unlikely that she can be elected because of: Virginia (13), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Florida (29), and Colorado (9), let's call them the big five.
(I am aware these are big, sweeping statements about areas with vast diversity in every county, but by and large I think I am capturing the majority of the population in these states)
With THE DONALD's essentially unlimited budget, and his now proven ability to pummel another candidate as he did to Jeb! Bush, giving him actual facts about a Presidential Candidate committing illegal acts with National Security information...I don't see how HRC would be able to move from 232 electoral college votes to 270. Even moving Pennsylvania and Colorado, the most reliably Democratic of the five, into her column still leaves DRC 9 electoral college votes short, with none of the remainder likely to go her way.
We're doomed.
We're Doomed: Donald Trump Edition
Please ignore all previous writings about Donald Trump: the sky is very rapidly falling on our heads.
Donald MF Trump (THE DONALD) is likely going to be the MF Republican nominee for President. And Hilary FFS Clinton (HRC) is pretty much guaranteed to be the Democratic nominee. This sets up a race of THE DONALD VS. HRC, where HRC is going to be going through a very public investigation about using her personal email to communicate state secrets and top secret information.
Why are we in this mess? Let Rolling Stone explain:
Edit: Fivethirtyeight.com provide a blueprint that might be THE DONALD, but it relies of Florida (OF COURSE IT FUCKING DOES). Floridians are notoriously bad at voting. This ends poorly.
Donald MF Trump (THE DONALD) is likely going to be the MF Republican nominee for President. And Hilary FFS Clinton (HRC) is pretty much guaranteed to be the Democratic nominee. This sets up a race of THE DONALD VS. HRC, where HRC is going to be going through a very public investigation about using her personal email to communicate state secrets and top secret information.
Why are we in this mess? Let Rolling Stone explain:
All of which virtually guarantees Trump will probably enjoy at least a five-horse race through Super Tuesday. So he might have this thing sewn up before the others even figure out in what order they should quit. It's hard to recall a dumber situation in American presidential politics.The sad truth: THE DONALD has locked up somewhere between 25-35% support in almost every primary state. With five candidates still in the race, 25-35 is enough to either win or get enough pledged delegates to maintain the lead he has established through to the Convention in June when the Republicans officially pick their candidate. There is a decent chance that THE DONALD won't accumulate 50%+1 of the delegates, which are needed to be automatically selected, but it's hard to see how the candidate going into the convention with the most delegates isn't the candidate selected. What's left that could stop him?
- Kasich drops out of the race.
- This guy is polling at about 5-10% in just about every state he wasn't the governor of. With him in the race, no other candidate will get to the 35ish mark needed to start beating THE DONALD.
- Karl Rove and/or the Koch Brothers
- The Koch brothers are billionares that have rules the Republican party for many years, they essentially created the tea party.
- Karl Rove was the strategist for George W Bush, runs an influential and well financed political organization.
- If either of these guys/groups starts to significantly back Rubio, there is a chance that Rubio maybe pulls ahead of THE DONALD, but that would require Kasich to drop out of the race.
- Media begins to reject the premise that Trump should be taken seriously, and start to treat him like they did Sarah Palin when she passed her initial popularity and was asked serious questions that demonstrated her unpreparedness for national leadership. We listen to THE DONALD'S answers to these questions on issues of social identity (race, gender, sexuality, etc.), economic plans, America's role in the world, free trade, and ask ourselves if that's the future we want.
- Act of God.
- Nope, just kidding: THE DONALD already publicly fueded with the Pope (THE POPE!!!!), and THE DONALD received more votes from Christians afterwards.
Edit: Fivethirtyeight.com provide a blueprint that might be THE DONALD, but it relies of Florida (OF COURSE IT FUCKING DOES). Floridians are notoriously bad at voting. This ends poorly.
Day 2
Today kind of unimpressed with the breath of the depth and breadth the presentations today was not helpful to follow up maybe with the researcher Steven Chu could help create some language around some of the tools that we can bounce back to Sola taters and the start of practice illustrators but generally this is really targeted at entry level of staff it might be worth knowing if learning services used metacognition or if they focus on auditory kinesthetic and visual learning styles I'd assume is metacognition but I am Not sure we could also take a look at exam wrappers for a bounceback tool but point to the session was generally that everyone learns differently and the structure of visual auditory kinesthetic or Gardner's multiple intelligences to work independently because people learn different in different contexts and that needs to change over time student Similar nurse needs to plan monitor and evaluate essentially at PDSA or experiential learning cycle for their learning not super interesting to text message
Two presentations on text messages show me that we are at the cutting edge of this one with our use of SMS although the US probably within a year is going to catch up which means Canada maybe a year after the book not that I was given will be an interesting read phrases like you are the kind of student who... As ways of starting a text message or commit to or plan to can be helpful but we need to be careful that we are describing an ideal student let me send that information out two new students baby may the research done by Arkansas Central Arkansas and Cal Poly shows that students receive information about the ideal student are more likely to be deflated and disempowered by that information if they are not the ideal student the students who received an inspirational quotes are more likely to feel optimistic and work harder all the other one interesting. They applied was using SMS to address for long in that can be sort of cool great session by BYU and single vine on text messages BYU someone similar to text a pretty healthy percentage of their incoming you student population during the summer before the fall semester arrival they use something similar to Trumpia and are having huge success with engagement so it'll be really interesting to see what they think the main difference that they highlighted between what they doing what we do is that they send a text within 3 weeks of a student being admitted to university so they are catching the student right away and then getting significant engagement and they have their peer mentor the equivalent of our online group leaders running this interaction participents didn't really notice about you that the text messages were simple convenient and timely which is important to keep in mind when sending them they are Anna ratio 157 new students to 1 mentor during the summer with wheedle down his students had some experience of summer mount all the BYU compare themselves to Harvard in terms of the complete lack of summer m*** that they deal with
Finally two sessions one on global citizen project and one on the importance of talking about race with first year student wolf Jerry and gazing Important sessions that I'll have to refer to my written notes on University of South Florida for global citizen project in Boston University for first-year students and race essentially they put language to some of the competencies that we are going to need to talk about it's it hang on I need to think more about how I want to talk about what I learned in this essentially global citizen projects very much plays off at the keynote speaker from last night to say how are Students prepared and or willing to be introduced to the competency is there going to be needing to face the challenges of the 21st century in a way that is not as employees and workers but is as citizens of the world needs to be able to work with different intersections of identity in order to address the challenges that they will face and that it's important for to be communicated is a way of living and not skills they need for University of the boat who they are and what they're going to do with their lives so things like why would this be important to them students to say that okay so the race presentation just a normal job I Boston University I have the card for the presenter that I like quite a bit I think what they talked about is him what they talked about was great except that it was very established in there common first year classes or is it through the first class that although it was an f.y.i 103 class for like freshmen through seniors were taking the class what sounded really interesting is the common ground training did they provided to pierce volunteer staff maybe even professors that did Offer quote unquote diversity training not it would really for intercultural competence he's asking really important questions I like subtracting you students to ask questions every question these questions every seminar overexposure throughout their undergraduate degree could be framed in terms of who is this person instructor what do they want me to know why did they want me to know it what are they telling me at what kind of world do I want to live in and in the importance of us understanding that at least by the American research the students are talking about race but they're talking about it with their friends of the same race and they notice when we are not ready or not participating in the conversation so the conversation is happening the risk management is fairly minimal it's going to be messy so biggest some examples of activities around common ground next week old blind spots and I will probably follow up with roll over email
so lots of good stuff and global competencies and raise some things to think about with text message interaction but nothing super important and a couple good contacts
Should you happen to see an fye post
I'm doing voice to text notes of the conference I'm at. Its verbal processing, and I don't expect people to see it but that is try this as a tool given some tech issues i!m having. They'll be rambly, disjointed and long. The audience is intended to be !e, later on :)
Day One at FYE
Great first day at the conference in Orlando. The keynote speaker was the president of a small college in Silicon Valley. He has integrated participation in politics and democracy in every part of the school curriculum to a degree. As the president with support of the board has created a culture where the whole institution has bought into the value of teaching this generation of students how to shape public policy for the challenges they will face in the next generation. He has use that to get away from the conversation about postsecondary as a factory for 21st century workers. He focuses on skills around lobbying influence systemic change and provides space and training for students and staff to have incredibly difficult and risky conversations. This could be an interesting job to fill with upper year students and potentially first year students. NOT the work that CDEC does, but the work around using Sienna staff to facilitate these conversations and to expose students to the type of inequality racial divide oppression that exists within our community. We can use these challenges to create opportunities for students to solve the problem as to not create a culture of despair and powerlessness. More thoughts around how to get large scale by in funding and staff support.
Post Mortem on the American Primaries after New Hampshire
The traditional media is spinning up more or less what I would expect: after two primaries both races are very close and your eyeballs should be glued to their channel for up to the minute news!
This isn't as true as they make it out to be: a look at the numbers tells us that things are still more or less settled on the Democratic side, but maybe moved in to the toss up column on the Republican side.
Democratic Party (Clinton v Sanders)
To think that Sanders has a chance is to ignore the people and money that got behind Clinton in 2008. Sanders keeping Iowa a close race was remarkable, but his blowout victory in New Hampshire was essentially him running in his own state, I don't think we learn anything from it. Clinton will win South Carolina and Nevada, and the narrative will quickly spin in to how much trouble Sanders is in. The dark horse potential on the Democratic side is a late entry into the race by Biden, which is highly unlikely and based almost entirely on future legal troubles Clinton may get into about her use of private email for top secret government work. This is still Clinton's to win.
Republican (Establishment v Reality TV stars)
To understand the Republican primary, you have to understand that a well funded group (by the Koch brothers) of (mostly) angry, social and fiscal conservative white people called the tea party make up enough of the membership to have major influence over who the nominee will be. They are largely responsible for the Republican gridlock in congress, and why every Republican candidate essentially pledges to view the role of government as a force for evil (regardless of their beliefs before they decided to run for higher office).
Trump to well to rebound from a tough loss in Iowa to a win in New Hampshire, but if you read data on sites like fivethirtyeight.com you see that he is the second choice of essentially zero candidates...so as other candidates drop out of the race, he won't pick up any support. Particularly in primaries where you don't have to be a republican member to vote for the Republican nominee, he won't fare well.
A lot of this race depends on who drops out by March 15th (Super Tuesday!). The following candidates are commonly labelled "establishment" candidates, as they don't spout the crazy, wall building, muslim hating, mysgonistic nonsense that the "tea party" candidates do:
Establishment:
Rubio, Bush, Kasich
Tea Party:
Trump, Cruz, Fiorina, Carson
The longer that both Bush and Rubio stay in the race, the longer Trump and/or Cruz will continue to poll in first/second place. Once one of Bush or Rubio drop out, all of their support will start to drift to the remaining candidate, and you'll quickly see Trump's support dwindle.
Sadly, if neither Bush nor Rubio drop out before March 15th, Rubio is likely to lose Florida and Bush is likely to lose Texas (their home states), which means the media narrative will likely label both of them as having campaigns that can't win...and we'll be left with Trump or Cruz as the Republican candidate.
Update: Fiorina dropping out impacts none of the above, she never had enough support or delegates to impact the race.
This isn't as true as they make it out to be: a look at the numbers tells us that things are still more or less settled on the Democratic side, but maybe moved in to the toss up column on the Republican side.
Democratic Party (Clinton v Sanders)
To think that Sanders has a chance is to ignore the people and money that got behind Clinton in 2008. Sanders keeping Iowa a close race was remarkable, but his blowout victory in New Hampshire was essentially him running in his own state, I don't think we learn anything from it. Clinton will win South Carolina and Nevada, and the narrative will quickly spin in to how much trouble Sanders is in. The dark horse potential on the Democratic side is a late entry into the race by Biden, which is highly unlikely and based almost entirely on future legal troubles Clinton may get into about her use of private email for top secret government work. This is still Clinton's to win.
Republican (Establishment v Reality TV stars)
To understand the Republican primary, you have to understand that a well funded group (by the Koch brothers) of (mostly) angry, social and fiscal conservative white people called the tea party make up enough of the membership to have major influence over who the nominee will be. They are largely responsible for the Republican gridlock in congress, and why every Republican candidate essentially pledges to view the role of government as a force for evil (regardless of their beliefs before they decided to run for higher office).
Trump to well to rebound from a tough loss in Iowa to a win in New Hampshire, but if you read data on sites like fivethirtyeight.com you see that he is the second choice of essentially zero candidates...so as other candidates drop out of the race, he won't pick up any support. Particularly in primaries where you don't have to be a republican member to vote for the Republican nominee, he won't fare well.
A lot of this race depends on who drops out by March 15th (Super Tuesday!). The following candidates are commonly labelled "establishment" candidates, as they don't spout the crazy, wall building, muslim hating, mysgonistic nonsense that the "tea party" candidates do:
Establishment:
Rubio, Bush, Kasich
Tea Party:
Trump, Cruz, Fiorina, Carson
The longer that both Bush and Rubio stay in the race, the longer Trump and/or Cruz will continue to poll in first/second place. Once one of Bush or Rubio drop out, all of their support will start to drift to the remaining candidate, and you'll quickly see Trump's support dwindle.
Sadly, if neither Bush nor Rubio drop out before March 15th, Rubio is likely to lose Florida and Bush is likely to lose Texas (their home states), which means the media narrative will likely label both of them as having campaigns that can't win...and we'll be left with Trump or Cruz as the Republican candidate.
Update: Fiorina dropping out impacts none of the above, she never had enough support or delegates to impact the race.
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