Concussions

I'm recovering from a concussion, and using this as a test to see if I can focus on screens for long enough to write a short post. I'm using "f.lux" to adjust my screen to help, and was last hit in the head March 9th.

Mostly I'm writing this as a place to yell into the void about how frustrating this is. I constantly feel like I'm in a little bit of a fog, with a little bit of a headache, and no ability to concentrate. As soon as I start to concentrate on something, or go for more than a brief walk, I begin to feel increasingly disoriented, headachey, and my double vision is consistently terrible.

I'm making the choices one would want someone to make: was taken to the hospital right away (thanks BJ!), resting near constantly, saw my Dr. Physio. acupuncture/massage.

And it's just depressing to face what this means in terms of limiting my risk of concussions moving forward, I spent four years not playing sports because all the health professionals in my life were worried about my knees. Now I'll have to stop because I can't risk a blow to the head. Which really sucks. And, although I know people are trying to help, I am SO FRIGGING TIRED of people suggesting I swim, ride a bike, yoga, etc: I get those are good choices, but I don't understand how people don't hear that my frustration isn't about activity, it's about sports. They are different things and one has been a huge part of my life.

Anyway, got this written and up inside ten minutes, and my head is definitely sore. Back to the pillow fort! Take care everyone.

A brief history of my concussions (or things that I'm pretty sure were concussions):

1) Kicked in the face by a horse at my parents wedding when I was 5. Pretty sure that it was a concussion, although my only remember looking at my hands and seeing blood. But who knows, maybe it wasn't.

2) Car accident in 1998 (or maybe 1997). I was in a really bad car accident, and had my first MRI. Knocked unconscious. Full recovery

3) Working maintenance in Lister Hall in...2001? I was cranking a pipe cutter:

around a pipe in a bathroom, and it snapped off, torqued around the pipe and hit me in the head. This concussion led to my second MRI.

4) Threw myself down the stairs (twice) in some poor decision making related to helping a friend make a video. There was a slow motion video of my head smashing into the wall and the concrete dust flying off, and a scary moment with some lattice work. Looking back, I may have had some concussion symptoms, I don't really remember.

(note: 5-7 happened between Feb 2016 and March 2017. Scary).
5) Fell on the sidewalk walking into work. Walked into the UC and threw up. This was the first time I threw up after hitting my head.

6) Was rear ended driving up Wellington St. Had concussion symptoms for a few weeks.

7) Soccer ball to the face. Dry heaved in the bathroom, concussion symptoms and off work for three weeks so far.

Help! What should I volunteer for next?

I had planned on writing a few more posts about the incoming Trump administration over the break, but have instead channeled my time and energy into finding an organization to volunteer with.

This is more challenging than I thought it would be, and I am open to suggestions. Here is my thought process:

• Coming out of the US election, I decided I wasn't really in a position to a) claim I knew anything or b) complain/feel dejected as I hadn't put any time or work into shaping the result.
• After reflecting some more, I've decided that the break I've taken from the type of volunteering or work I was doing in politics is over. 
• In finding a new organization to volunteer for, I'm looking for the following things (in order of priority):

1. Are they effective? Do they have clear, easily digestable objectives. Do they have strategy and tactics that they stick to.
• For example, I've ruled 123Guelph out as, after emailing back and forth, I can't really tell what they are trying to achieve and how they are trying to achieve it. 
2.  Are they working towards something I believe in?
• For example: I wouldn't volunteer for the group(s) protesting Nestle in Guelph, as I think there are more pressing water issues in Canada, and the impact of those issues are on marginalized and oppressed populations that don't have a very powerful voice.
3. Do I feel a good fit with the organization?
• I don't want to repeat my Green Party experience, where it turned out that most members and leaders of the party were committed to ideals that weren't winning elections, and my involvement usually ended up in damaging conflict as I was committed to winning. 
4. Does the project make an impact on a large scale? (and use the skills I've built in this area)
• I already have a role with the Guelph Community Boating Club that fits a fun/local niche. I don't want a project that would essentially duplicate this (e.g. Hiking Trails, Big Brothers/Sisters, Guelph Hospital, etc.)

I'm not entirely sure what this means, and am open to suggestions. Here are some of the ideas I have: 

• I'm meeting with Fair Vote Canada, as I'm a fan of eliminating FPTP voting as soon as possible...but my perception is that they seem more interested in discussions and rallies, which don't seem to have had much of an impact on elected officials. 
• I could find a potential candidate for the Municipal election in 2018 and help them run. But in Guelph that may be tough. If the seat isn't open, and they aren't aligned with Mayor Guthrie's vision, it's a very high degree of difficulty to win.
• I could find a vulnerable currently elected official who I like, and help them win re-election, but I'm not sure there's anyone who meets that definition.
• In order to prevent Kelli Leitch's Trump-style politics from being in the national conversation after the Conservative leadership race, I could follow the lead of a few of my friends and volunteer for Michael Chong, who I have a lot of respect for.
• With a lack of meaningful local reporting on politics, I could approach someone like Adam Donaldson and guelphpolitico to ask if I can help in coverage of local politics. This wouldn't really use the skills I've built around point 4 above, but could be interesting and fills a void.

Feel free to comment with any suggestions you may have for me! Has to fit around my job at the University :).

New National Basketball Association Collective Bargaining Agreement seems to be good news for the Raptors

Knowing that this blog is where people come to for their up to date information on collective bargaining and the National Basketball Association and, specifically, the Raptors...

Of the facts reported on the new CBA, it appears to be great news for the Raptors:
1) The best players, worth the Maximum contracts allowed, get a small pay bump from 30% to 35% of the team's salary cap.
This will really only impact Kyle Lowry, as he's likely to get the max or just under at some point in the Winter or summer. I can't imagine him leaving the Raptors, his family is reported to be really well settled, he loves his teammates, and he's not likely to join the Cavs, Warriors, Clippers or Spurs...so...so far so good. DeRozan and Lowry are the only two max level players the Raptors are likely to have for the next three seasons.

1b) It became a more difficult choice for players like Durant to leave their original team and join a super team. This makes the formation of another Eastern Conference super team unlikely (sorry Boston).
Their original team, assuming the player is an actual star, can re-sign the player for more money and more years earlier in the contract.

2) The minimum contracts for rookie players are going up. As is the minimum contract for veterans. This is going to make it difficult for teams trying to catch the Raptors to get better.

This is great news in the sense that the Raptors contract situation is more or less set for the next two or three seasons. Teams who are looking to acquire players are going to be really squeezed out by the new CBA: Their first year players are going to be eating up a higher percentage of the salary cap, as will their star player(s) leaving less middle ground for veteran acquisitions. Free agent signing are going to become even more rare. Once again: it's kind of addition by subtraction for the Raptors: They don't have any glaring needs or big acquisitions to make. Teams looking to catch them do, and it just got harder to do that.

2b) One consequence of this will be any player signed between summer 2014 and summer 2016 is likely to have a very valuable contract. Players like Ross, Patterson, Valunciunas, Carroll, and Joseph are going to be incredibly valuable to the Raptors as they'll be getting paid way under market value. This also makes a combination of them plus draft picks a really attractive package for a team who may be looking to trade a star player. Personally: I hope the Raptors don't make a super aggressive move, not much point in getting a Cousins/George or even Milsap if they're going to leave within a year of trading for them and the Raps give up incredible value.

3) The Raptors have drafted really well recently:
Poetl, Nogeura, Powell, Siakam and Delon Wright all look to have NBA player potential, none look to be busts. They're going to get more playing time, more money, and complement the star players well.
The new CBA increases the maximum roster size by two slots, and creates two-way contracts with minor league teams for two players on each roster. All the signs from the Raptors 905 (the minor league team), are that they're incredibly well coached and a great incubator of talent.

4) So, if you believe that the Raptors team is good enough that they're one Cavalier injury away from winning the Eastern Conference playoffs...then it looks like they're going to be in this position for a few years.

So, three more years or so of: Lowry/Joseph/Wright, DeRozan/Ross, Carrol/Powell, Patteron/Sullinger/Siakam, Valuncianas/Bebe/Poetl? While other teams will have a hard time improving quickly? Yes please.

We're Doomed: Everybody count to 3

Here's a story that isn't getting much attention (I think):
In 2011, the Republicans held a primary election to select their opponent to run against Barack Obama. There were 14 candidates, this is the story of one of the losing candidates.

Rick Perry became the Governor of Texas in 2000, following the election of George W. Bush to the Presidency. He left a complex legacy: taking credit for economic growth that exactly mirrored the boom and bust of oil prices,  becoming a/the US leader in wind energy, guiding the state to have the highest percentage of uninsured citizens (meaning many people who couldn't afford health care), supporting the teaching of intelligent design alongside evolution, making abortions more difficult to access, against gay marriage and generally homophobic, killed 278 people via execution...

And so, based on this record, he decided he was the man to unseat Barack Hussein Obama at the end of his first term of President. He was initially viewed to be a friend of the tea party, charismatic,  had the support of the George W. Bush political leadership team, and for the very briefest of moments: Rick Perry was the front runner and likely Republican nominee for President. Sadly (for him), he flat lined to last place and dropped out almost overnight, with Mitt Romney going on to win the nomination.

How did it happen so fast? This debate on the night of November 9th, 2011. He attempts to name three agencies he would eliminate in the government during a live debate. This was part of his "stump" speech: the speech that a candidate gives at every event, only adding in a paragraph or two to personalize for each event. He had listed the three agencies dozens, if not hundreds, of time. It is difficult to overstate the impact cutting the three agencies would have. Let alone the thousands of people who were regularly being told they would lose their jobs.

He only remembered the first two. It didn't go well. The agency he forgot (since it isn't actually mentioned in the video?): Energy.

Last week Rick Perry was selected by President Elect Trump to be the head of the Energy Agency (the Energy Secretary).

We're Doomed: Starting at the beginning.

I'm going to pivot some of my writing to the fun small stories that I think aren't getting much attention that are...intriguing. Or terrifying.

But to start, here's the context that I'm writing from. I think it's important to be transparent with my beliefs, as I'm sure there are people from across the political spectrum who could read this:

• Trump was accused of sexually assaulting women during a Presidential election and won. It look improbable to impossible that the 12 women who accused him collaborated in any way. These accusations appear to have died out. It's hard to imagine that anything else in this story matters, yet: here we are.
• Trump is racist. Too many credible, proven examples are readibly available for me to prove any. If you disagree with this, probably stop reading. If you agree with this, and would point out that he won anyway: yup.
• The question about if Trump voters are racist and mysognistic is complex. I'm confident that many of them aren't knowingly. Similarly confident that their motivations for voting the way they did had nothing to do with offend (see: Trump's campaign manager telling us that Trump's voters knew the difference between what affected them and what offended them). But: If you voted for a racist, mysognistic, alleged sexual assaulter: I don't know how to defend the argument that you have to carry the implications that you're ok with those actions.

So, with those being the (likely) most important things I think about Trump, here are some secondary, yet incredibly powerful things:

• He's likely to be President. I'm not reading much about a growing community of Republican electors defecting (they need 37, they have 8). The smartest people I know in the Democratic party are spending their time getting ready to win elections at every level in 2018 and 2020.
• Trump's Presidency puts everything on the table. He risks economic collapse, nuclear war, rise of white supremacy, calamitous climate change, rise of Russian/Iranian/Chinese superpowers, complete rescattering of the current world order.
  BUT
• If I learned anything this election, it's that I don't know much. Collectively, we might not know much. What if Trump's actions improve inner cities? What if the likelihood of world peace is increased? If we don't know what Trump is going to do, if Trump doesn't know what Trump is going to do, then how do Terrorists plan to attack? How do the leaders of oppressive regimes prepare to negotiate? 

The sheer scope of the things he puts on the table are overwhelming, and I find impossible to parse. Literally life on Earth as we know it. But...I actually can't say that means it's a worse case scenario in each and every area. We'll find out.

We're Doomed.

I am so angry. I owe a thousand apologies and have been spending pretty much all my time since the election either sick (bad cold), working, or thinking about how I was way to arrogant/wrong/etc. But I'm also so, incredibly angry.
For example:
 ALL THESE EXAMPLES ARE FROM THE LAST NINE DAYS. NINE. NINE DAYS. JUST NINE MF DAYS. HE ISN'T EVEN PRESIDENT YET.
Trump has appointed racists, bigots and white supremacists to the most senior positions in government. Which takes attention away from the mysgonists and old white men who would take away a women's right to choose and believe that homosexuality can be treated. So this is horrifying and creates a feeling of powerlessness. How unbelievably shitty.
Or
Trump had a surrogate (high profile person who speaks on behalf of him) go on Fox News and say that Japanese Interment Camps were a precedent that could be applied to Muslims in America. When the Fox News reporter called him on this (!!!!!!!), he simply re-iterated his point. Are you fucking kidding me?

Or
Trump is talking to world leaders on telephone lines that are unsecured without briefings from any current government officials to provide context for each call. Maybe not the biggest disaster you say? Sure, except: it is. Hillary was routinely attacked for mismanaging her emails, which were still on secure servers, just not government servers. He's openly talking on phones with foreign leaders about who the fuck knows what.

Or, maybe a little more sinister? Sure.
A Russian government official admitted to Russia tampering with the US election in favour of Trump. I mean, what? What the actual fuck?

Or, something that involves a rich white guy buying his way out of trouble?
Trump was sued for fraud, for tens of millions of dollars, by students who paid insane amounts of money to attend Trump University, and were lied to about instructor quality, course offerings, and job prospects upon completion. He is paying off a $25million settlement to make it go away.

Or, maybe a little bit of "sure Rob: But how is HE profiting?"
President Elect Trump and his team gathered 100 foreign diplomats in Trump Tower, NY, and promoted staying at Trump Towers (including giveaways) while conducting their work. Be President and promote your hotel chain? Smart!

Or, something a little lower key? Why not.
Something smaller scale? Sure: Last night, the Vice President Elect went to see the hit broadway show Hamilton because irony. The crowd boo-ed the shit out of him, which is probably not the best way to respond. I would have bombarded him with questions about the above. Anyway, at the end of the show, one of the lead actors read out a note to Vice President Pence about how the cast were scared for their safety and rights. It was thoughtful, touching, and came across as genuine.

TRUMP RESPONDED WITH A TWEET THIS MORNING SAYING THAT THE CAST WERE RUDE TO THE VICE PRESIDENT AND SHOULD APOLOGIZE. HOLY SHIT.

 None of this is acceptable. None of this is behaviour that should be tolerated. When Obama stepped in it early in his presidency, he offended a police officer somehow, he brought the guy to the White House to talk to him face to face. 

I'm hearing a lot of "this is not normal" being the phrase used by progressives, and I disagree. Normal is the wrong word, although I see that they are trying to tell me to not get desensitized to this kind of behaviour. We need to understand that this is objectively ethically and morally wrong. This behaviour is manipulative, hateful, bullying and creeping up close to the border of a pure expression of evil.

 It has, at minimum, inspired me to look inward for example of it in Canada. I've reached out to the Assembly of First Nations (AFN) to ask if they are open to support in advocating for clean water in the 100 plus Canadian communities that don't have it, who have been told they have to wait five years. I can't imagine the response I'd have if I was told I'd have to boil water for the next five years, and I could drive to a community that has been told that in my own province by tonight.

It might not be the same kind of thing happening in the states, but at least it's real and I can do something. Fuck Trump. Don't give him a chance. I want America, as a country, to prosper, but nobody owns him a chance.

We are not doomed: I'm thinking about you

I originally posted this to Facebook, but wanted to leave it here so I could find it again if needed. Maybe some of these words will resonate with you.

I'm thinking about the students I work with and for. I'm particularly thinking about the American students (and colleagues) at Guelph. I hope that, when we wake up tomorrow, we treat each other with compassion, empathy, curiosity and make big checks on our assumptions (e.g: who did they vote for? who did they want to win?) I hope that the American students we have on campus are treated as a valued part of our community, and not asked to explain what happened. I doubt they know. I hope they are not judged or rewarded for the actions of millions upon millions of people they have never met.
And, as I am starting to see across all my social media platforms, I'm thinking about the students not represented by the new president of the USA (essentially, all those who are not white, straight males). I hope that the election of a bigot, a racist, a homophobe, a misogynist and a sexist does not speak to them about their value as a person. I hope it does not affirm or spark similarly hateful beliefs of others.
Finally, I'm thinking about the women in my life, and...not being able to fully wrap my mind around the range of emotions they may be feeling.
For myself, I feel angry. Frustrated. Shocked. I don't understand what appears to be on the verge of happening. Even if Hillary pulls this out, I don't understand the 55 million people who signed off on Trump. This isn't to say that I hold them in contempt or judgement. My anger, frustration and disappointment stem from a belief that I could have done something and did not. I was overconfident. I was wrong. I am disappointed that the progress made in inspiring action in 2008 did not carry over to this election. I hope that instead of rushing to judge and condemn, that we respect and ask. For the people beyond hope, for those who live in the most abject of possible human conditions, I think I can put myself in the headspace where a vote for Trump could be a way forward. For those who are getting by, or even thriving, I'm confused and would love to know why. The words I use to describe Trump are, I'm pretty sure, objectively true. I could support each of them with a statement or action he has made. If they are true, then why cast a vote for him? Because you dislike Hillary? Do you not also dislike Trump? Do you have loyalty to the Republican brand that extends beyond values? Is there something he offered that I missed?
For those of you who are hurting, please take care of eachother. For those of you who are celebrating, enjoy the moment, and see if you can find kindness for those of us who are not. For all of us, keep those who's voices are systemically oppressed in mind, those who could not donate/volunteer/vote/advocate. They were powerless in this, please find respect for that and be mindful in your words.

We are not doomed: Why the polls, and the polling aggregators, are wrong

The polls are wrong. The people who Trump have offended are more likely to vote than the polling models predict. The amount of people who voted is not included accurately in the polls, and these people have mostly voted Democrat (by demographics). It's going to be a Clinton landslide.

There have been reports on publicly conducted polls on a near hourly basis over the past two weeks. These are likely to dry up today and tomorrow, as polling these polls are mostly paid for by media outlets, and they tend to be less newsworthy and attention grabbing after people have voted.

I prefer fivethirtyeight.com, and Nate Silver, for getting my polling information. They take publicly available polls, and (with a pretty transparent methodology), combine them to form a kind of "poll of polls". They also have a prediction engine that combines market conditions, presidential favourability, incumbent parties, etc.

The narrative fed to us by most media organizations is that the race is tightening, and that Trump is more or less as likely to win as Clinton. This is essentially the same argument many media companies make for human caused climate change: one side has vastly more science and expertise behind it than the other, but both are presented equally.

Here are two factors that polling companies likely have wrong, because they are essentially impossible to incorporate, that indicate a Clinton blowout is coming on Tuesday:

1. Public polls can't accurately account for people who have already voted. As of Friday, there are reports that anywhere from 22-40 million people have already voted. Most key states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas, Arizona, etc.) report that the demographics largely favour Clinton compared to voter turnout in 2012. 
2. Demographics. Each poll, and each aggreggator of polls, uses a model of what they think the electorate will look like in 2016. They can use whatever information they want in creating these models, and it determines what identities are included in their reporting. This changes the number of people who are actually included in the polls:
1. Women
2. Men
3. Hispanic/Black/Asian/White
4. College Educated/Not College Educated.

If you change the way any of these demographics are included in a poll, it wildly changes the result. Include 5% more hispanics, 5% less white voters, and all of a sudden Trump looks like he's in big trouble. In this cycle, with how offensive Trump has been, it's impossible to predict how the electorate will be different in 2016 compared to 2012.

We Are Not Doomed: Official Predictions

If you didn't receive one of my 17 accidental Facebook invites: Please bring friends and join...me? a group of us? whoever! at Bobby O'Briens in downtown Guelph from somewhere just before 6 until late to watch the election results.

With very little time left in the election, it will be difficult for either party to do anything that will influence results at this point. Hundreds of thousands of ballots have already been cast, and there just isn't enough time for either Hillary or The Offensive One to do anything, spin it, and have it stick. Expect many, many, many allegations...some of which may even be founded, but don't expect them to have an impact.

Here are my predictions, so that I can be ridiculed at a later date:

House of Representatives:
Currently: R-246, D-186
Democrats pick up a net total of 15 seats, Republicans keep control of the House 235-201.

Senate: 
Democrats win 16 seats, Republicans win 17. Democrats take back majority of the Senate 50 D, 48 R, 2 I..
Currently: 54 R, 44 D, 2 I.
Democrats win in:
Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Maryland, Connecticut, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, North Carolina.
Republicans win in:
Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma, Both Dakotas, Iowa, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio.

North Carolina and Pennsylvania don't get called until later on in the week after election day.

President:
Hillary Wins.

Popular vote:
HRC - 49%
THE DONALD - 39%
Other Candidates - 12%

Electoral College
Hillary - 376. THE DONALD - 162
Hillary Wins:
(Notable First, as they're obvious long shots. then from east to west.):
Texas.
Alaska.
Maine (both), Nebraska (1/5)
NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, PA, VA, NC, FL, MI, IL, WI, MN, CO, NM, AZ, NV, WAS, OR, CA, HI.

THE DONALD WINS:
Iowa (sorry Obama team), Ohio
Nebraska (4/5)
WV, SC, GA, AL MS, TN, KY, IN, MO, AR, KS, OK, SD, ND, MT, WU, ID UT.

Other Random Predictions
It will be painfully obvious that the election is over by around 8:15pm (Ohio & North Carolina will be called), but they probably won't call that Hillary has won until 10pm, as West Coast voters can vote until as late as 11pm Eastern time. Turmp won't give a concession speech, but either: a) Will announce the launch of his new media empire. b) Insult President Clinton c) Imply that "his people" should demand a recount. Answer "c" scares me a little.

Poll Closing Times (EST)
Note, some states may get called before people have finished voting.

• 6pm - Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina
• 7pm - Florida, Georgia, Vermont, Virginia, Indiana, Kentucky
• 7:30pm - North Carolina, Ohio
• 8pm - Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Maine, Maryland, Mass,  NH, NH, Penn, RI, Tenn, Alabama, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee
• 8:30pm - Arkansas
• 9pm - Wyoming, New York, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas
• 10pm - Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah, Nevada
• 11pm - North Dakota, California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington
• Midnight - Alaska

We Are Not Doomed.

Hillary wins. I hope my friends in Florida are safe from the storm surge. Trump can not possibly come back from this. Locks in a Democratic Senate as well. Puts winning the House back on the table as well. At this point, I'd guess something like Hillary - 48, Trump - 38, Independents - 14. The enormity of the scandal that Hillary would have to be involved in to lose would be...astonishing and unprecedented.

None of this is to say that anything about the audio of Donald leaked today is objectively worse than anything else he says, just that Republican leaders and Media influencers seem to be latching on to this in a major way.

We're Doomed: Love in the time of Doom

Let's pretend, optimistically, that political campaigns were sometimes about innovative, creative, edgy solutions to 21st century catastrophes. Let's imagine a place where the two major parties in the US nominated candidates who could articulate solutions to global, national, and local inequity. Global Warming. Harambe shootings. Poverty. Homelessness. Veterans with mental health illnesses. The rap music. Etc.

Since I can't even finish a paragraph about serious issues without my head starting to hurt about what Trump actually talks about, I'm going to write a short series of counter ideas to things he talks about:

Idea 1:
Trump says that Hillary Clinton's security should have their guns taken away. He also says that gun rights advocates could/should deal with Hillary Clinton. So, ok: let's put those two ideas into practice. In return, Trump has to jump into alligator infested waters near any of this properties in Florida. This seems like a fair quid pro quo to me.
http://www.npr.org/2016/09/16/494328717/trumps-second-amendment-rhetoric-again-veers-into-threatening-territory 

Idea 2:
While running against HRC, a woman who has lived her entire life in heavily scrutinized public services, Trump has psudeo-doctors reveal his medical information on a psuedo-doctor reality TV show (Dr. Oz). He tells us repeatedly that HRC is sick, and demands to see her health records. At the same time, he refuses to oblige poltical convention and release his tax returns because, as his son says "Why would we do that? Then people would just ask questions about it?". Yes they would Donald Jr., yes they would.

So, instead of releasing his tax returns, Donald has to match every dollar spent by his campaign, by the RNC, and by the Super Political Action Committees supporting him to the charity of the internet's choice (once again, I assume this will end in a giant Harambe memorial). But maybe it finds a Zika vaccine, or infrastructure in impoverished nations. Or deals with the sickening poverty found all over the USA. Who knows.

More ideas some other time.

We're Doomed: (C) Stands for Cookie?

Hot Take: Hillary Clinton is not good with technology. From this story: http://gizmodo.com/hillary-clinton-had-11-blackberrys-while-secretary-of-s-1786108731 

• HRC used 11 Blackberry phones at once. I mean....why? 11 Blackberries? By the seventh, doesn't one start to wonder "hey, maybe this isn't working out?"
• HRC was only vaguely aware that there was a computer server installed at her house. The person who installed it didn;t think it was for her. But he built it...in her house...for not her...oh god the stupidity here is killing me.
• And last, but most certainly not least:

HRC was the Secretary of State in the USA for Obama's first four years. I hope, early on in the job, that someone reviewed how information that was somewhere in the classified to top secret to kill-you-if-you-find-out spectrum was labelled.

But, apparently Hillary skipped alphabet day as there were 81 email chains that were marked classified on her unclassified personal server. This is a problem because, you know, state secrets starting wars and whatnot.

Then, being Hillary Clinton, she lied about it. Because of course she did. Or, even while months and months and months into this investigation, she claims to not have learned that emails marked "C" were classified. Either way, she found a new method of playing into the Republican and Trump construct that she can't be trusted. 

In tennis, you call these unforced errors. In politics, I'd call them dealbreakers. With this many weeks to go in the campaign, there are millions and millions of voters being contacted by volunteers for Hillary every day, at the doors and on the phone. When they call someone, say the not-college-educated white voters who are overwhelmingly indicating support for Trump, that says "well, I'd vote for Hillary, but I have three jobs just to afford raising my family, I'm still struggling, voting for Clinton, Obama, Bush and whoever didn't work in the past, Hillary lied about her health, lied about her email and I know Trump is the antichrist...but at least he doesn't have a filter and nothing else has worked so far..." The volunteer will not be able to come up with a response.

Calmly though, the race is still about the big states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado,,maybe Michigan and Virginia). If enough non white voters turn out to vote, then none of this matters. If they stay home, HRC has a problem. She probably won't.

We're Doomed: I don't want to be doomed anymore (warning: strong language)

Ok! Although Florida will still do something dramatically stupid (no doubt), we now have to turn our attention back to how doomed we are.

Most people, by and large, don't spend a lot of attention on politics. There's been some research that it's around 4-10 minutes a week. Here's how this contributes to our current re-doomening.

THE DONALD, he who gets non stop attention from political pundits and TV news, while spending almost no money on advertising, has been pretty consistently doing the following:
1) Calling HRC "Crooked Hillary"
2) Saying that HRC lies
3) Saying that HRC is very ill, and hiding it

4) Praising the leadership of Vladmir Putin
5) Saying racist, mysognistic, homophobic, hateful, mean spirited, evil things
6) Turning over campaign leadership non stop.

He was so repetitive with points 1 to 3 that a lot of people sort of tuned it out. It is very similar to how he led the birther movement (the group that claims Obama is not American), or the group that says Obama is a secret Muslim. People I used to speak to door to door had heard those conspiracy theories so often that they kind of tuned them out after a while. There was no proof to back them up, there was a lot of proof to the contrary, so about 60-70% of the states just forgot about. The remainder get pretty brainwashed by media or local conservative leaders, and would agree that the sky was pink and Regan is still alive in Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity (American media moguls) told them.

Where this becomes a problem that could undo HRC is...SHE WAS MOTHERFUCKING UNBELIEVABLY FOR FUCK SAKE SICK AND SHE MOTHERFUCKING GODDAMN FOR FUCK SAKE DIDN'T TELL ANYONE.

(For the facts, here's a BBC story. We can all trust the BBC, right? http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37346293)

What happens next is going to be awful. For people who are busy leading their lives, and only spend a little bit of attention on this, they're likely to think "huh, Hillary is lying to us? Wow. Maybe Donald has a point. He can't be that bad, can he?". I feel comfortable guaranteeing that as Field Organizers and volunteers go door to door in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and other battleground states, they'll have completely reasonable people telling them "well, I was going to vote for Hillary, but now it turns out that Trump was right so I don't know what I'mm going to do. Maybe just stay home or vote Libertarian."

The moment a politician plays into the construct that their opponent has built for them, they can spend the rest of the election fighting their way out, and still lose, regardless of facts. John Kerry lost an election to George Bush because he was painted as a lying flip flopper, and it didn't matter if he actually was or not becuase Bush painted him into the corner.

Hillary may have just painted herself into the corner of being not trustworthy and not healthy. This may have been enough of a mistake to throw the stupid fucking election to Trump. Unbelievable, but true. She was already wildly unpopular, with polls showing that she was personally disliked almost as much as Trump.

And this doesn't even touch my next post, about how it turns out that she SENT CONFIDENTIAL EMAILS FROM PERSONAL ACCOUNTS, THAT WERE LABELLED (C). So yeah, there aren't storm clouds on the horizon. This is essentially a horror movie, and we're at the moment where the young woman has run into the forest to escape the killer, and it looks like she's about to get free.

Also, I hope Hillary recovers from her pneumonia soon, and the fact that she hid it from her staff doesn't imply it's something worse than pneumonia. And don't get me wrong, she was under no ethical imperative to keep us up to date on illnesses that are easy to treat, but it played exactly into the story that Trump built for her, which is such a batshitfuckinginsancecrazyasstupid thing to do.

Blame Florida: Its still HRC's election to lose. And it is still going to be Florida's fault.

President Hillary Clinton is still going to be the next President of the USA. Nothing can change that now. You may convince yourself to say the following things about THE DONALD

1) But you (and experts) said that about the primary

2) I don't know, I think it's rigged for him

3) He's a billionaire, of course he'll win

4) You can't trust politics, he could still win this

To which I would respond

1) There are complicated math and stats reasons to show the difference between this point in the Donald's primary win and the general election. Essentially, the same group of people have liked him from last summer until now. That group was large enough to make him the Republican nominee. It is definitely not large enough to have him win a general election.

2) It's not rigged for him. There is no secret cabal of billionaires who will rig this for him. There is a very public cabal of Billionaires, who are known and written about, that are not supporting him. These people have decided elections in the past, and they think Trump is unstable. Read a summary of Game Change 2012 to read their names, but a few are: the Koch brothers, Sheldon Adelson, Foster Friess, Paul Singer, Robert Mercer, Woody Johnson, Norman Braman, Ken Lagone, Joe Ricketts, Peter Thiel, Carl Icahn, Andrew Beal, Darwin Deason, Wilbur Ross

Of this list: Icahn, Beal, Deason, Johnson, Thiel are the only ones to have donated directly or indirectly to Trump. It is difficult to overstate how significant this is. The Trump campaign is running on a shoestring budget, with their first TV ad launching a couple days ago, and every state complaining about a lack of resources.

It isn't rigged.

3) See above. He doesn't have enough money to prop this up himself.

4) You can, actually, trust the voting process. Each campaign will spend hundreds of thousands on lawyers to monitor voting stations. It's pretty funny to watch this team actually, I've seen some that just sit outside in lawn chairs with coolers and a bbq all day because voting irregularities are beyond rare.

So, how will Florida blow this for Hillary?

Here's four stories that demonstrate how bad Florida is at this, taken at random:

1) They'll design the ballots so that they can't be scanned: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/26/palm-beach-county-florida-election_n_2025447.html

2) They'll decide not to count the votes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_election_recount)

3) They'll run out of ballots (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/reports-of-voting-problems-surface-in-florida-primary/)

4) They'll just lose ballot boxes (http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26856896/#.V7nc5pgrK70)

She'll still win, but something really stupid is going to happen in Florida. Maybe they'll end up casting their electoral votes for George Bush again.

Blame Florida: The DONALD nomination

As we're doomed comes to a close, it is time to start talking about the General Election, so I'll introduce my new series: Blame Florida. We can't know exactly how, but I can guarantee that in some way: Florida is going to screw this thing up. Whether it be through literally not figuring out how to cast a ballot (which led to the election of George W Bust in 2000), being the last state to call for Obama in a landslide election (Seriously: wtf), or generally repressing their voters...Florida is going to do something bat shit crazy on election day. I'm just preparing for it.

In this edition, THE DONALD was officially nominated by the Republican Party this week. The Republican party had a few day convention in Cleveland to celebrate it. The convention was a grand celebration in fucking up really basic details of event planning: mismanaged time, speakers going until 2 am, speeches being stolen/plagiarized, a near complete lack of credible people speaking to policy ideas, solutions or THE DONALD's readiness to be President. I'll probably write about the convention for fun in the near future.

But here's how we know that the convention was complete failure:

• He didn't get much of a popularity bump
• None of the core issues or campaign environment changed.

After a political convention, where talk about the party washes out news and social media, you hope to gain about five points on your opponent (like McCain did after his convention in 2008, when Sarah Palin first caught our attention). This week, Trump has gained about 2.8 points overall, while HRC has gained about 1. That's a complete failure, particularly with the Democrats about to have their convention.

In 2012, Romney had much of America convinced that Obama could not manage the economy or financial crisis. Most people believed that they were worse off than before Obama became President in '08. This was a crippling problem for the Democrats, until their convention, where good ol' boy WIlliam Jefferson Clinton (Bill Clinton), gave an absolutely lights-out speech clearly explaining how the US was better off. It had a dramatic impact on what the political nerds call the "underlying numbers" questions like "can he manage the economy" and "do I trust him" shot up through the roof for Obama, having been stuck below 50%. 

Neither of these moments happened. None of the speeches given or actions that occured are likely to acheive the basic three things THE DONALD has to accomplish (he has to do all three):

1. Persuade more undecided or independent voters to vote for him
2. Persuade the people who voted for Obama in 2008 to stay home.
3. Persuade more Republican voters to show up

From the speeches I saw this week, they would have a net zero impact. People who liked Trump, at best, will still like him. People who voted for Obama are probably more likely to vote for Obama now. The Republicans who don't like Trump, still don't like Trump.

Except for Florida. Who the eff knows what's going to happen there. My prediction this week: Florida gets attacked by ghost-pirates on election day, triggering a until-then unknown clause of the constitution that makes all of Florida's electoral votes invalid.

Stay out of trouble team, have a great day.

We're Doomed: Way Too Early Predictions

With the FBI stating that they are not going to pursue charges against HRC over her mismanagement of confidential and top secret information while Secretary of State, it's time for my WAY TOO EARLY predictions.

I'm using a combination of very reliable internet sources (the internet would never lie?), plus my knowledge of some of the get out the vote organizations in close races. Cook Report, Politico, Pollseter, Real Clear Politics and general US demographics.

For example: Marco Rubio is now running for Senate in Florida (having just tried to beat Trump for the Republican nomination for President). He was a very popular Senator, but with Democrats having eased travel restrictions to Cuba (large Cuban population in Florida), and Trump clearly being Racist (large Latino population in Florida), and Florida being potentially the state that will have the most money spent in it for advertising and staffing in the Presidential election...Democrats will likely beat Rubio.

President
HRC wins 347 electoral college votes. 47% of the popular  vote
THE DONALD wins (?) 191 electoral college votes 40% of the popular vote
Other candidates: No seats, 13% of the popular vote. (Libertarian -10% and Green - 3%)

House of Representatives
Republicans: 229, Democrats: 205
Democrats make a net gain of 18 seats.
(state symbol and district number)

Democrats Add:
CA - 07, 10, 25
CO - 6
FL - 07, 10, 13, 26
IL - 10
IO - 01
ME - 02
MN - 03, 08

NH - 01
NV - 03, 04
NY - 01, 03, 19

VA - 04
Democrats Lose:
NB - 02
FL -02

Senate
Democrats 53
Republicans 47


Democrats Add:
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Democrats don't lose any seats

We're Doomed: The Winds of Doom

Quick update: We don't know anything new. There will be many invented stories that have only been created because people who are paid to talk on TV have to say something, and THE DONALD draws ratings. It's still incredibly unlikely that he can win, but nobody should say that with much certainty until after the labour day long weekend.

(of course, I do have a little wager on the outcome of this...)

With that said...if a vote were held today, HRC would win by a landslide. She'd win by historical margins in the electoral college, and possibly bring Democratic majorities to the Senate and Congress.

Which begs the question, what would she do?

In 2008: We knew that Obama was promising the idea of Change.
In 2012, we knew Obama promised to not be Mitt Romney.
This year, we know that:
THE DONALD stands for "you're angry!? I am also angry!!"
Bernie stood for "Revolution! And have you seen my glasses?"
Jeb! Bush stood for "Jeb!" "No really! My name is Jeb!"
HRC seems to stand for "I'm like Obama, but not quite..." and "seriously, it's my turn now" or "maybe if I just go away for a few months, people will literally beg me to be President instead of DONALD"

 When Obama briefly had a majority of democrats in the House and in Senate, he saved the auto industry, invested an unprecedented amount of money in a stimulus package, completely overhauled the way Americans get health insurance, lessened the burden of student debt, changed the course of climate change, and allowed people to be openly homosexual in the military. There were other accomplishments, I remember these being the signature ones in his first two years when he had the type of majority HRC may have.

So....I wonder what Hilary would do?  Her website isn't clear on this, listing dozens of priorities. The Washington Post suggests immigration reform and hundreds of millions of dollars on infrastructure in addition to mandatory paid family leave and medical leave.

Immigration reform is what politicians refer to as a third-rail issue. When you actually try to grab a hold of it (and change it), it electrocutes you. Reforming the current American approach to immigration will require about the same amount of political capitol that Obama spent on Health Care. Reminder: He was absolutely demonized for changing health care laws when he was in the middle of it. The last act of the massive campaign capacity he built with his volunteer mass was to overwhelm congresspeople and senators with calls in support of Obamacare. HRC may face a similar uphill battle, but she isn't showing signs of building the type of community outreach capacity that Obama has in 2008.

Everything after these promises is hazy, which is a little worrisome. She'll have the potential to force meaningful change through the American Government, but seems to have so many promises that she doesn't have any. She talks about tax, wall street, trade deals, early education, minimum wage, and other liberal favourites, but none seem to be thematic or passionate calls to action.

She has an opportunity to transform the American economy, to bridge the gap between the lower class and the 1% (let's agree middle class is rarely a thing), to provide for security in retirement or to advance the health care evolution even further. She could state a grand ambition (think Kennedy promising that Americans would go to the moon), like eradicating hunger or ending climate change....but nada. She could choose aspiration, which would allow her team to spread that message and bring communities together in support of her agenda, like we did in 2008. Instead, she appears to be choosing status quo.

I didn't support Bernie, because I didn't think he was capable of pulling it off (either winning, or if he won: accomplishing anything). But damn, I wish HRC was willing to take a little bit of a gamble. I bet her ground team does too.

We're Doomed: If a Doom hibernates in the woods, does anyone care?

Get ready for HRC vs. THE DONALD: Rumble in the bungle, your a-list racist vs. she of a million cracks, AND LET'S GET READY TO....snore?

The campaign is about to enter what sailors would call the doldrums. Public schools are about to let out, or they have already. College students are working their summer jobs or travelling. It's likely to be hot out. Or, depending on where in the states people live, about to tornado or hurricane or flood through their houses. Nobody has time to click a tasty political link about what absolutely hate filled, racists, inane, hurtful, stupid thing THE DONALD said last, or on a link that provides your next bland, uninspiring, totally vanilla, political legacy link from HRC.

Any campaign I have worked on over the summer goes through this. People are less likely to open their doors when you knock, less likely to answer the phone and not at all likely to have formed an opinion. Overwhelming, the research shows, people are spending about 4-8 seconds a week paying attention to politics right now. You can expect blips when the conventions happen to offiically select the nominees, and another blip when each candidate selects their Vice President nominee, but generally it's going to be a snooze fest.

Major media outlets will continue to try and get our attention with manufactured stories (or, maybe, genuine reporting), but the next major event in this campaign is the end of the labour day weekend in September.

Practical implications of this:

• Polls are going to change a lot after the labour day weekend, when people start to spend more time paying attention. 
• Both campaigns will really whack at eachother with advertisements, tens of millions of dollars on tv spots trying to shape our opinions of the other candidate.
• This is largely done to win the "media" battle. Once media have settled in on a "narrative" about a candidate, it is hard to move them off. We tend to believe the media narrative, regardless of facts. As an example of this:
• Many people believe Obama is Muslim, and not born in the USA. This is factually inaccurate, but became part of the media narrative so it stuck
• Very little money will be spent by either candidate promoting themselves. THE DONALD has yet to spend money on advertisements that do much more than attack other people and refer to himself as the greatest. HRC desperately needs to show people how dangerous, racist, mysognistic, zenophobic, and underqualified THE DONALD is, so her ads will largely be about that.

And finally, REPEAT AFTER ME:

We won't know if THE DONALD can win until September. 

He probably can't. It will take a spectacular clusterfuck of an HRC campaign for him to win. He will look close, or maybe even winnning, but he can't win the battleground states. He has got this far on celebrity, money, and speaking in a way that people recognize is different and taps into their anger. He has about a quarter of the staff that the Republican party was planning on having, meaning there are no people organizing events, schmoozing local city councils, going door to door or making phone calls to back up his image and help him get his vote out. The democrats have an overwhelming structural advantage here, with a well trained organizer machine left over from the Obama years. 

So, sit back, relax, let the doom take you to a sweet hibernation nap until September. Nothing meaningful will happen until then.

We're Doomed: Hold the Door!*

Quick recap:
Donald Trump has clinched the Republican nomination for President. This will become official in Cleveland in early July when the Republicans hold their convention.
Hilary Clinton has won the Democratic nomination, although it is still being reported as contested.

In 2008, Obama won the nomination after North Carolina voted on May 6, 2008. Those of us that who performed well in the Pennsylvania primary campaign for him that ended late April were sent to North Carolina to partner with campaign staffers in key areas. Theoretically, we should have been beating the crap out of the HRC campaign, but days before the vote we received a conference call from a semi-panicked state chairperson telling us that we were behind and something to the effect of "would regret it for the rest of our lives." This kind of panic was rampant in response to last minute, outlier polls that really didn't show what was happening in the bigger picture. We went on to win NC handily, followed by HRC refusing to drop out of the race until the last state had voted. A vindictive part of me is glad that Sanders is doing the same thing to her.

There's an important lesson to learn from that North Carolina poll and panicked call from a senior campaign staffer: You really, really have to put polls in context. The same situation famously happened in 2012, when right before the general election we were being told that Romney was going to beat Obama because of things like tightening national polls, and high profile reporters seeing many lawn signs for Romney in New York. That election was never going to be close, and Obama won by nearly historic amounts.

When you hear a poll, particularly one that says Trump is beating HRC, please remember the following:

• The national percentage of support for each candidate means absolutely nothing. Each state is allocated a number of votes (called Electoral College votes) for President based on their proportion of the population from the last census. The total number of votes needed to win is 270 of the 538 total. 
• Electoral College votes are largely winner take all for each state. Nebraska and Maine use slightly different rules.
• If there is a tie, things can get very very very weird. Not going to get into that today.
• Right now you can say with near 100% certainty that HRC can not possibly get less than 217 votes, and Trump can't get less than 191. http://www.270towin.com/
• This leaves 130 electoral votes up for grabs, with HRC needing 53.
• Here are the states that are not allocated above:
• State Name, Number of electoral college votes, current party registration breakdown
• Florida (29), D38.8-R35.0
• Ohio (18), R42-D41
• North Carolina (15), D41.7-R30.4
• Virginia (13), R42-D40
• Wisconsin (10), D43-R41
• Colorado (9), R32.9-D30.9
• Nevada (6) D39.7-R34.6
• Iowa (6), R32-D31.1
• New Hampshire (4) , R30.1 D 27.2 

Let's say that both campaigns do an equal job in motivating their currently registered supporters to vote, and that the undecided or unregistered voters break more or less down the middle. In this situation, HRC gets 59 more electoral college votes from Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Nevada.

And this analysis doesn't begin to consider questions like: Will non-white voters vote for Trump? How will that impact states with high percentages of non-white voters (eg: Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida...let alone the names currently allocated to the Repbulicand like Arizona). What percentage of women are going to vote for Trump (everywhere)? What about college educated (Virginia)?

News media are going to default to stories about this election being close. They are going to make Trump seem like a rational presidential candidate by telling a story like Trump accusing HRC of participating in killing a drug dealer in the 90s alongside stories of HRC campaign  rally, ideas and missteps as if they were equivalent statements.

The email issue continues to be the main unknown in this race: If the DONALD can frame her as a criminal, then perhaps he can swing some states his direction. Otherwise, this race is already over and HRC has won.
*shoutout to any GoT fans. Heartbreaking story about Hodor.

We're Doomed: Oh dear

Quick update: OH MY GOD WHY WON'T THEY MAKE IT STOP FOR THE LOVE OF WHATEVER YOU HOLD SACRED PLEASE MAKE THEM STOP WE MUST BE ABLE TO DO BETTER THAN THIS.

Clinton won the nomination in February, some people still hold out hope that isn't the case. Unfortunately "facts" and "math" are against Sanders, he'll stay on through the Democratic Convention because...reasons...but Clinton is the Democratic nominee.

Let's hope she doesn't get indicted for the email thing. (click here for the latest in the investigation and possible outcomes: http://www.politico.com/news/hillary-clinton-emails)

And, in the other corner:

Somehow, Republican voters demonstrated a feeling that can best be described as "ahh, fuck it" in five states that held primaries yesterday. The Scorecard (overall):

1. Trump - 954 delegates
2. Cruz - 562 delegates
3. Rubio (no longer running) - 171 delegates still bound to vote for him in the first round 
4. Kasich - 153
5. Technically uncommitted, but their state vote for Trump - 57
6. Other - 16

• Remaining to be awarded: 616 delegates in 10 primaries, with California being the largest by far (172 total). 
• Needed to win on the first ballot at the July convention outright: 1,237
• Trump remaining to clinch nomination on first ballot: 283

Until recently, pundits would have said it was nearly impossible for Trump to get to 1,237. Given that he only has to win  45% of the remaining delegates, and that he can concentrate a lot of his time and money in California....it appears we should get ready for:

THE TRUMPENING.

Trump v. Clinton 2016 is coming, and it is going to be an absolute disgrace. Trump has already said that "If Hilary was a man, she would only be getting 5% of the vote"...so we're already into gendered attacks from a white male.