We're Doomed.

I am so angry. I owe a thousand apologies and have been spending pretty much all my time since the election either sick (bad cold), working, or thinking about how I was way to arrogant/wrong/etc. But I'm also so, incredibly angry.
For example:
 ALL THESE EXAMPLES ARE FROM THE LAST NINE DAYS. NINE. NINE DAYS. JUST NINE MF DAYS. HE ISN'T EVEN PRESIDENT YET.
Trump has appointed racists, bigots and white supremacists to the most senior positions in government. Which takes attention away from the mysgonists and old white men who would take away a women's right to choose and believe that homosexuality can be treated. So this is horrifying and creates a feeling of powerlessness. How unbelievably shitty.
Or
Trump had a surrogate (high profile person who speaks on behalf of him) go on Fox News and say that Japanese Interment Camps were a precedent that could be applied to Muslims in America. When the Fox News reporter called him on this (!!!!!!!), he simply re-iterated his point. Are you fucking kidding me?

Or
Trump is talking to world leaders on telephone lines that are unsecured without briefings from any current government officials to provide context for each call. Maybe not the biggest disaster you say? Sure, except: it is. Hillary was routinely attacked for mismanaging her emails, which were still on secure servers, just not government servers. He's openly talking on phones with foreign leaders about who the fuck knows what.

Or, maybe a little more sinister? Sure.
A Russian government official admitted to Russia tampering with the US election in favour of Trump. I mean, what? What the actual fuck?

Or, something that involves a rich white guy buying his way out of trouble?
Trump was sued for fraud, for tens of millions of dollars, by students who paid insane amounts of money to attend Trump University, and were lied to about instructor quality, course offerings, and job prospects upon completion. He is paying off a $25million settlement to make it go away.

Or, maybe a little bit of "sure Rob: But how is HE profiting?"
President Elect Trump and his team gathered 100 foreign diplomats in Trump Tower, NY, and promoted staying at Trump Towers (including giveaways) while conducting their work. Be President and promote your hotel chain? Smart!

Or, something a little lower key? Why not.
Something smaller scale? Sure: Last night, the Vice President Elect went to see the hit broadway show Hamilton because irony. The crowd boo-ed the shit out of him, which is probably not the best way to respond. I would have bombarded him with questions about the above. Anyway, at the end of the show, one of the lead actors read out a note to Vice President Pence about how the cast were scared for their safety and rights. It was thoughtful, touching, and came across as genuine.

TRUMP RESPONDED WITH A TWEET THIS MORNING SAYING THAT THE CAST WERE RUDE TO THE VICE PRESIDENT AND SHOULD APOLOGIZE. HOLY SHIT.

 None of this is acceptable. None of this is behaviour that should be tolerated. When Obama stepped in it early in his presidency, he offended a police officer somehow, he brought the guy to the White House to talk to him face to face. 

I'm hearing a lot of "this is not normal" being the phrase used by progressives, and I disagree. Normal is the wrong word, although I see that they are trying to tell me to not get desensitized to this kind of behaviour. We need to understand that this is objectively ethically and morally wrong. This behaviour is manipulative, hateful, bullying and creeping up close to the border of a pure expression of evil.

 It has, at minimum, inspired me to look inward for example of it in Canada. I've reached out to the Assembly of First Nations (AFN) to ask if they are open to support in advocating for clean water in the 100 plus Canadian communities that don't have it, who have been told they have to wait five years. I can't imagine the response I'd have if I was told I'd have to boil water for the next five years, and I could drive to a community that has been told that in my own province by tonight.

It might not be the same kind of thing happening in the states, but at least it's real and I can do something. Fuck Trump. Don't give him a chance. I want America, as a country, to prosper, but nobody owns him a chance.

We are not doomed: I'm thinking about you

I originally posted this to Facebook, but wanted to leave it here so I could find it again if needed. Maybe some of these words will resonate with you.

I'm thinking about the students I work with and for. I'm particularly thinking about the American students (and colleagues) at Guelph. I hope that, when we wake up tomorrow, we treat each other with compassion, empathy, curiosity and make big checks on our assumptions (e.g: who did they vote for? who did they want to win?) I hope that the American students we have on campus are treated as a valued part of our community, and not asked to explain what happened. I doubt they know. I hope they are not judged or rewarded for the actions of millions upon millions of people they have never met.
And, as I am starting to see across all my social media platforms, I'm thinking about the students not represented by the new president of the USA (essentially, all those who are not white, straight males). I hope that the election of a bigot, a racist, a homophobe, a misogynist and a sexist does not speak to them about their value as a person. I hope it does not affirm or spark similarly hateful beliefs of others.
Finally, I'm thinking about the women in my life, and...not being able to fully wrap my mind around the range of emotions they may be feeling.
For myself, I feel angry. Frustrated. Shocked. I don't understand what appears to be on the verge of happening. Even if Hillary pulls this out, I don't understand the 55 million people who signed off on Trump. This isn't to say that I hold them in contempt or judgement. My anger, frustration and disappointment stem from a belief that I could have done something and did not. I was overconfident. I was wrong. I am disappointed that the progress made in inspiring action in 2008 did not carry over to this election. I hope that instead of rushing to judge and condemn, that we respect and ask. For the people beyond hope, for those who live in the most abject of possible human conditions, I think I can put myself in the headspace where a vote for Trump could be a way forward. For those who are getting by, or even thriving, I'm confused and would love to know why. The words I use to describe Trump are, I'm pretty sure, objectively true. I could support each of them with a statement or action he has made. If they are true, then why cast a vote for him? Because you dislike Hillary? Do you not also dislike Trump? Do you have loyalty to the Republican brand that extends beyond values? Is there something he offered that I missed?
For those of you who are hurting, please take care of eachother. For those of you who are celebrating, enjoy the moment, and see if you can find kindness for those of us who are not. For all of us, keep those who's voices are systemically oppressed in mind, those who could not donate/volunteer/vote/advocate. They were powerless in this, please find respect for that and be mindful in your words.

We are not doomed: Why the polls, and the polling aggregators, are wrong

The polls are wrong. The people who Trump have offended are more likely to vote than the polling models predict. The amount of people who voted is not included accurately in the polls, and these people have mostly voted Democrat (by demographics). It's going to be a Clinton landslide.

There have been reports on publicly conducted polls on a near hourly basis over the past two weeks. These are likely to dry up today and tomorrow, as polling these polls are mostly paid for by media outlets, and they tend to be less newsworthy and attention grabbing after people have voted.

I prefer fivethirtyeight.com, and Nate Silver, for getting my polling information. They take publicly available polls, and (with a pretty transparent methodology), combine them to form a kind of "poll of polls". They also have a prediction engine that combines market conditions, presidential favourability, incumbent parties, etc.

The narrative fed to us by most media organizations is that the race is tightening, and that Trump is more or less as likely to win as Clinton. This is essentially the same argument many media companies make for human caused climate change: one side has vastly more science and expertise behind it than the other, but both are presented equally.

Here are two factors that polling companies likely have wrong, because they are essentially impossible to incorporate, that indicate a Clinton blowout is coming on Tuesday:

1. Public polls can't accurately account for people who have already voted. As of Friday, there are reports that anywhere from 22-40 million people have already voted. Most key states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas, Arizona, etc.) report that the demographics largely favour Clinton compared to voter turnout in 2012. 
2. Demographics. Each poll, and each aggreggator of polls, uses a model of what they think the electorate will look like in 2016. They can use whatever information they want in creating these models, and it determines what identities are included in their reporting. This changes the number of people who are actually included in the polls:
1. Women
2. Men
3. Hispanic/Black/Asian/White
4. College Educated/Not College Educated.

If you change the way any of these demographics are included in a poll, it wildly changes the result. Include 5% more hispanics, 5% less white voters, and all of a sudden Trump looks like he's in big trouble. In this cycle, with how offensive Trump has been, it's impossible to predict how the electorate will be different in 2016 compared to 2012.