Official Election Day Prediction for Guelph

For the political nerds out there:
Here are the factors I am taking into consideration:

• The ballot question in Guelph is "Who can beat the Conservatives" (for about 70% of voters in Guelph)
• Campus/Student voting will end up being the same as 2011, due to poor logistics on the part of Elections Canada. There was a TON of missed opportunity here, as students were generally very eager to vote, but didn't have an hour plus to stand in line.
• The collapse of the Federal NDP vote is real (triggered by a collapse in Quebec about a month ago) and will send their support to Bobbi Stewart/Tom King numbers: about 9,800.
• This is the election after Robocalls, and although I admire Gloria Kovach's campaign, she received almost no visible support from the Federal Party. The Conservative vote, long established as a rock solid 17-19 thousand will drop to at least 14 thousand.
• Looking at the elections Liz Sandals was elected, it feels safe to say the Liberal base vote is around 19,000
• Green Party Base: 3,500
• Let's assume 60,000 people will vote in Guelph:

Conservatives: 14,000

NDP: 9.800

Other: 500

Liberal Base: 19,000

Green Base: 3,500

Remaining votes: 32,200 that pretty much solely care about beating the Conservatives.

Note: Much more confident in my Con, NDP and Other guesses than I am in Lib and Green.

I met Lloyd Longfield when he was running for the Liberal nomination and liked him. I thought he was going to stand on the issue of a stronger democracy, for modern voting, for easier access, for more engagement...but I've seen a campaign where I believe he has embraced mediocrity and would be a very reliable Liberal backbencher. His campaign is obviously terrified of the Greens, as for the first time I can recall, they dedicated a page of a city wide mail-out attacking Gord Miller and the Green Party.

The Liberal Party has won 7 federal and 3 provincial elections in a row. I think there is a small chance that some Conservative voters may swap to Green to strategically vote against Guelph becoming one of the safest Liberal seats.

Elizabeth May has visited the riding a few times, motivating the Green base. The Green campaign has run an incredibly substantial voter persuasion and id campaign. I don't think they've done quite enough to publicly show the city that a person can vote Green without fear of that vote accidentally electing a Conservative (even though I fervently believe this to be true). So, final vote tallies likely near:

Con: 14,000 (23.3%)

Green: 16,000 (26.7%)

Lib: 19,500 (32.5%)

NDP: 10,000 (16.7%)

Other: 500 

Total Votes: 60,000

In other words: This whole race comes down to questions like: who runs a better Get out the Vote operation this weekend? What impact will the Jays game have on voter turnout? If it snows on Sunday or Monday, what impact will that have? It'll be fun to watch!