Liberal - 25,574 - 43%
Conservative - 19,252 - 32%
NDP - 9,836 - 16%
Green - 3,711 - 6%
Other - 3%
2008
Liberal - 18,977 - 32%
Conservative - 17,185 - 29%
Green - 12,456 - 21%
NDP - 9,709 - 16%
Other - 2%
The differences between each parties support tells the story of this election. Between 2008 and 2011, the total vote increased by about 75 people or essentially 0% of 59,000 voters. The change in percentage vote of each party is as follows:
Conservative: +3
NDP +0
Other +1
and...
Liberal +11
Green - 15
So, for all intents and purposes, 80% of the people that voted Green in 2008 moved to the Liberal, 20% moved to the Conservatives and Others.
Green leaning voters were scared that a Conservative would win so they voted Liberal. The NDP surge appears to have not materialized locally. Thoughts?
Hi Rob, Thanks for posting this. Given our fptp system and the SV focus, if the Green campaign had done better by 6000 votes, we'd have Marty Burke as our MP (given the issues this election it is very likely Greens who voted Cons would have done so anyway = what is at the heart of how wrong (read unfair) the system is.
ReplyDeleteGood point Patti! I think progressive minded community leaders in Canada will need to spend some time thinking about how to communicate about fear-based voting (I have a hard time saying strategic voting, I think it's moved beyond that).
ReplyDeleteFir what its worth Rob, looking at the numbers for Guelph, in light of the general changes around there, here is what I would say happened:
ReplyDeleteYou are right, the Liberal incumbent feasted on the collapse of the Green vote.
The Consincrease was consistent with what they were doing everywhere- and may not have come from the Green collapse at all.
And actually there was a modest effect from the 'Orange Wave'- because with weak resources put in, and no Tom King, you would have to expect the NDP vote to head south. Instead, it got to ride the wave enough to stay even.
I think the purported 'strategic vote' is way overbilled.
I think the Liberal incumbent picked up the Green vote because that was always their natural home- in Guelph at least.
For another example- that the size of Elizabeth May's margin was not so much anti-Harper as it was part of the same surge that was carrying the NDP.... that people want something else.