Post Mortem on the American Primaries after New Hampshire

The traditional media is spinning up more or less what I would expect: after two primaries both races are very close and your eyeballs should be glued to their channel for up to the minute news!

This isn't as true as they make it out to be: a look at the numbers tells us that things are still more or less settled on the Democratic side, but maybe moved in to the toss up column on the Republican side.

Democratic Party (Clinton v Sanders)
To think that Sanders has a chance is to ignore the people and money that got behind Clinton in 2008. Sanders keeping Iowa a close race was remarkable, but his blowout victory in New Hampshire was essentially him running in his own state, I don't think we learn anything from it. Clinton will win South Carolina and Nevada, and the narrative will quickly spin in to how much trouble Sanders is in. The dark horse potential on the Democratic side is a late entry into the race by Biden, which is highly unlikely and based almost entirely on future legal troubles Clinton may get into about her use of private email for top secret government work. This is still Clinton's to win.

Republican (Establishment v Reality TV stars)
To understand the Republican primary, you have to understand that a well funded group (by the Koch brothers) of (mostly) angry, social and fiscal conservative white people called the tea party make up enough of the membership to have major influence over who the nominee will be. They are largely responsible for the Republican gridlock in congress, and why every Republican candidate essentially pledges to view the role of government as a force for evil (regardless of their beliefs before they decided to run for higher office).

Trump to well to rebound from a tough loss in Iowa to a win in New Hampshire, but if you read data on sites like fivethirtyeight.com you see that he is the second choice of essentially zero candidates...so as other candidates drop out of the race, he won't pick up any support. Particularly in primaries where you don't have to be a republican member to vote for the Republican nominee, he won't fare well.

A lot of this race depends on who drops out by March 15th (Super Tuesday!). The following candidates are commonly labelled "establishment" candidates, as they don't spout the crazy, wall building, muslim hating, mysgonistic nonsense that the "tea party" candidates do:
Establishment:
Rubio, Bush, Kasich
Tea Party:
Trump, Cruz, Fiorina, Carson

The longer that both Bush and Rubio stay in the race, the longer Trump and/or Cruz will continue to poll in first/second place. Once one of Bush or Rubio drop out, all of their support will start to drift to the remaining candidate, and you'll quickly see Trump's support dwindle.

Sadly, if neither Bush nor Rubio drop out before March 15th, Rubio is likely to lose Florida and Bush is likely to lose Texas (their home states), which means the media narrative will likely label both of them as having campaigns that can't win...and we'll be left with Trump or Cruz as the Republican candidate.

Update: Fiorina dropping out impacts none of the above, she never had enough support or delegates to impact the race.

How to be an NFL fan?

I really enjoy watching most professional sports. I love the sense of pride, enthusiasm and community you see in teams with great home fans: Raptors, TFC, Golden State Warriors, all of Premier League Socer, Seahawks, every NFL tailgate I've been to, etc.

I also enjoy the strategy in sports, and can nerd out watching a perfectly executed pick play, or the intricacies of NFL linemen play. Watching the San Antonio Spurs pass the ball to create the perfect shot is essentially my current sports nirvana.

I love the way Fantasy sports keeps me loosely connected to people I have met throughout the years, in friendly competition. Also the way that it feels like a personal challenge for me to demonstrate that I know something about the sports I play fantasy in. 

But wow, is it hard to be a fan of the NFL these days. They have two major strikes again me, and I don't know how to continue holding three thoughts in my head:
1) Playing football kills people. From High School to professional, head and neck injuries are killing people. Sustained playing careers, or short ones, cause something called "CTE" which kills people. Football is really bad for you.
2) The NFL has a problem with players committing violence and not being held accountable. Ray Rice, Greg Hardy and Adrian Peterson are three recent high profile examples of athletes who beat up a woman or child and received arbitrary, unpredictable, inconsistent consequences from their team and the league. Greg Hardy has yet to even offer basic remorse for his actions. Two of the three are still playing in the league.
3) I enjoy watching the game.

I know many people who stop watching. I know some who shrug and essentially ignore the problem. I haven't actually heard of a third solution: So...any of you out there find a way to resolve knowing these three things?

No need to worry about Trump or Carson Presidency

In the Guelph Mercury:
http://www.guelphmercury.com/opinion-story/6086982-a-president-trump-scenario-will-not-come-about/