In this edition, THE DONALD was officially nominated by the Republican Party this week. The Republican party had a few day convention in Cleveland to celebrate it. The convention was a grand celebration in fucking up really basic details of event planning: mismanaged time, speakers going until 2 am, speeches being stolen/plagiarized, a near complete lack of credible people speaking to policy ideas, solutions or THE DONALD's readiness to be President. I'll probably write about the convention for fun in the near future.
But here's how we know that the convention was complete failure:
- He didn't get much of a popularity bump
- None of the core issues or campaign environment changed.
After a political convention, where talk about the party washes out news and social media, you hope to gain about five points on your opponent (like McCain did after his convention in 2008, when Sarah Palin first caught our attention). This week, Trump has gained about 2.8 points overall, while HRC has gained about 1. That's a complete failure, particularly with the Democrats about to have their convention.
In 2012, Romney had much of America convinced that Obama could not manage the economy or financial crisis. Most people believed that they were worse off than before Obama became President in '08. This was a crippling problem for the Democrats, until their convention, where good ol' boy WIlliam Jefferson Clinton (Bill Clinton), gave an absolutely lights-out speech clearly explaining how the US was better off. It had a dramatic impact on what the political nerds call the "underlying numbers" questions like "can he manage the economy" and "do I trust him" shot up through the roof for Obama, having been stuck below 50%.
Neither of these moments happened. None of the speeches given or actions that occured are likely to acheive the basic three things THE DONALD has to accomplish (he has to do all three):
- Persuade more undecided or independent voters to vote for him
- Persuade the people who voted for Obama in 2008 to stay home.
- Persuade more Republican voters to show up
From the speeches I saw this week, they would have a net zero impact. People who liked Trump, at best, will still like him. People who voted for Obama are probably more likely to vote for Obama now. The Republicans who don't like Trump, still don't like Trump.
Except for Florida. Who the eff knows what's going to happen there. My prediction this week: Florida gets attacked by ghost-pirates on election day, triggering a until-then unknown clause of the constitution that makes all of Florida's electoral votes invalid.
Stay out of trouble team, have a great day.
