Quick update: We don't know anything new. There will be many invented stories that have only been created because people who are paid to talk on TV have to say something, and THE DONALD draws ratings. It's still incredibly unlikely that he can win, but nobody should say that with much certainty until after the labour day long weekend.
(of course, I do have a little wager on the outcome of this...)
With that said...if a vote were held today, HRC would win by a landslide. She'd win by historical margins in the electoral college, and possibly bring Democratic majorities to the Senate and Congress.
Which begs the question, what would she do?
In 2008: We knew that Obama was promising the idea of Change.
In 2012, we knew Obama promised to not be Mitt Romney.
This year, we know that:
THE DONALD stands for "you're angry!? I am also angry!!"
Bernie stood for "Revolution! And have you seen my glasses?"
Jeb! Bush stood for "Jeb!" "No really! My name is Jeb!"
HRC seems to stand for "I'm like Obama, but not quite..." and "seriously, it's my turn now" or "maybe if I just go away for a few months, people will literally beg me to be President instead of DONALD"
When Obama briefly had a majority of democrats in the House and in Senate, he saved the auto industry, invested an unprecedented amount of money in a stimulus package, completely overhauled the way Americans get health insurance, lessened the burden of student debt, changed the course of climate change, and allowed people to be openly homosexual in the military. There were other accomplishments, I remember these being the signature ones in his first two years when he had the type of majority HRC may have.
So....I wonder what Hilary would do? Her website isn't clear on this, listing dozens of priorities. The Washington Post suggests immigration reform and hundreds of millions of dollars on infrastructure in addition to mandatory paid family leave and medical leave.
Immigration reform is what politicians refer to as a third-rail issue. When you actually try to grab a hold of it (and change it), it electrocutes you. Reforming the current American approach to immigration will require about the same amount of political capitol that Obama spent on Health Care. Reminder: He was absolutely demonized for changing health care laws when he was in the middle of it. The last act of the massive campaign capacity he built with his volunteer mass was to overwhelm congresspeople and senators with calls in support of Obamacare. HRC may face a similar uphill battle, but she isn't showing signs of building the type of community outreach capacity that Obama has in 2008.
Everything after these promises is hazy, which is a little worrisome. She'll have the potential to force meaningful change through the American Government, but seems to have so many promises that she doesn't have any. She talks about tax, wall street, trade deals, early education, minimum wage, and other liberal favourites, but none seem to be thematic or passionate calls to action.
She has an opportunity to transform the American economy, to bridge the gap between the lower class and the 1% (let's agree middle class is rarely a thing), to provide for security in retirement or to advance the health care evolution even further. She could state a grand ambition (think Kennedy promising that Americans would go to the moon), like eradicating hunger or ending climate change....but nada. She could choose aspiration, which would allow her team to spread that message and bring communities together in support of her agenda, like we did in 2008. Instead, she appears to be choosing status quo.
I didn't support Bernie, because I didn't think he was capable of pulling it off (either winning, or if he won: accomplishing anything). But damn, I wish HRC was willing to take a little bit of a gamble. I bet her ground team does too.
We're Doomed: If a Doom hibernates in the woods, does anyone care?
Get ready for HRC vs. THE DONALD: Rumble in the bungle, your a-list racist vs. she of a million cracks, AND LET'S GET READY TO....snore?
The campaign is about to enter what sailors would call the doldrums. Public schools are about to let out, or they have already. College students are working their summer jobs or travelling. It's likely to be hot out. Or, depending on where in the states people live, about to tornado or hurricane or flood through their houses. Nobody has time to click a tasty political link about what absolutely hate filled, racists, inane, hurtful, stupid thing THE DONALD said last, or on a link that provides your next bland, uninspiring, totally vanilla, political legacy link from HRC.
Any campaign I have worked on over the summer goes through this. People are less likely to open their doors when you knock, less likely to answer the phone and not at all likely to have formed an opinion. Overwhelming, the research shows, people are spending about 4-8 seconds a week paying attention to politics right now. You can expect blips when the conventions happen to offiically select the nominees, and another blip when each candidate selects their Vice President nominee, but generally it's going to be a snooze fest.
Major media outlets will continue to try and get our attention with manufactured stories (or, maybe, genuine reporting), but the next major event in this campaign is the end of the labour day weekend in September.
Practical implications of this:
The campaign is about to enter what sailors would call the doldrums. Public schools are about to let out, or they have already. College students are working their summer jobs or travelling. It's likely to be hot out. Or, depending on where in the states people live, about to tornado or hurricane or flood through their houses. Nobody has time to click a tasty political link about what absolutely hate filled, racists, inane, hurtful, stupid thing THE DONALD said last, or on a link that provides your next bland, uninspiring, totally vanilla, political legacy link from HRC.
Any campaign I have worked on over the summer goes through this. People are less likely to open their doors when you knock, less likely to answer the phone and not at all likely to have formed an opinion. Overwhelming, the research shows, people are spending about 4-8 seconds a week paying attention to politics right now. You can expect blips when the conventions happen to offiically select the nominees, and another blip when each candidate selects their Vice President nominee, but generally it's going to be a snooze fest.
Major media outlets will continue to try and get our attention with manufactured stories (or, maybe, genuine reporting), but the next major event in this campaign is the end of the labour day weekend in September.
Practical implications of this:
- Polls are going to change a lot after the labour day weekend, when people start to spend more time paying attention.
- Both campaigns will really whack at eachother with advertisements, tens of millions of dollars on tv spots trying to shape our opinions of the other candidate.
- This is largely done to win the "media" battle. Once media have settled in on a "narrative" about a candidate, it is hard to move them off. We tend to believe the media narrative, regardless of facts. As an example of this:
- Many people believe Obama is Muslim, and not born in the USA. This is factually inaccurate, but became part of the media narrative so it stuck
- Very little money will be spent by either candidate promoting themselves. THE DONALD has yet to spend money on advertisements that do much more than attack other people and refer to himself as the greatest. HRC desperately needs to show people how dangerous, racist, mysognistic, zenophobic, and underqualified THE DONALD is, so her ads will largely be about that.
We won't know if THE DONALD can win until September.
He probably can't. It will take a spectacular clusterfuck of an HRC campaign for him to win. He will look close, or maybe even winnning, but he can't win the battleground states. He has got this far on celebrity, money, and speaking in a way that people recognize is different and taps into their anger. He has about a quarter of the staff that the Republican party was planning on having, meaning there are no people organizing events, schmoozing local city councils, going door to door or making phone calls to back up his image and help him get his vote out. The democrats have an overwhelming structural advantage here, with a well trained organizer machine left over from the Obama years.
So, sit back, relax, let the doom take you to a sweet hibernation nap until September. Nothing meaningful will happen until then.
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